Egypt: the next vulcano?
by Eric Margolis
Egypt is facing a potential political eruption that could rock the entireMideast and seriously undermine US domination of the strategic region.
This threat comes as tensions in the Mideast are already extremely high.Threats of war involving US, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran are flying fastand furious.
President Husni Mubarak, the US-supported strongman who has ruled Egypt with aniron hand for almost 30 years, is 81 and in frail health. Amazingly, he has nodesignated successor. No one knows who will take over Egypt when he dies.
For Mubarak, it may be "après moi, le deluge." Dealing with elderly dictatorsis always an extremely tricky business.
Mubarak, an air force general, was put into power with US help after theassassination of President Anwar Sadat by nationalist soldiers in 1981. Sadathad been a CIA "asset" since 1952.
My sharp-tongued mother interviewed Sadat in the 1950's and described him as a"clown." Sadat was a hero in the US and Israel, but Egyptians hated him andgreeted his killing with jubilation.
Egypt, with 82 million people, is the most populous and important Arab nation.Cairo has long been the cultural center of the Arab world. It is also anovercrowded madhouse with eight million people (12 million in the great Cairoarea) crammed into an early 20th century colonial city built for 500,000.Cairo's population has tripled since I lived there as a boy in 1957.
About 28% all Arabs are Egyptians. Deduct North Africa, known as the Maghreb -and not traditionally part of the Arab heartland - and Egypt counts for a thirdof all Arabs. The Nilotic Egyptians are quite different ethnically from theArabs of Arabia, Syria and Iraq, but they all share a mostly common language,religion, and sense of pan-Arab identity.
Egypt was once the heart and soul of the Arab and Muslim world. Under Sadat'spredecessor, the widely adored nationalist, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt led theArab world. By contrast, Egyptians despised successor Sadat as a corruptWestern toady, and sullenly accepted Mubarak.
After three decades under Mubarak, Egypt has become a political and culturalbackwater, and a virtual American protectorate. Its political, intellectual,and religious life have been hand-cuffed by the security police.
In a very telling incident, Mubarak recently flew to Germany for gall bladderand colon surgery. After some $85 billion in US aid, Mubarak could not eventrust a local hospital in the Arab world's leading nation to perform hisoperation.
The US gives Egypt $1.3 billion annually in military aid to keep the generalscontent, and about $700 million in economic aid, not counting large but secretCIA stipends to key generals, high officials, intelligence chiefs and Egypt'smedia. A small business elite attached to Mubarak has grown wealthy while therest of Egypt remains mired in poverty, with a per capita national incomearound $1,600 per annum.
Egypt does not have enough arable land to feed its growing population, and mustimport 50% of its foodstuffs, mostly subsidized, low-cost US wheat. This foodaid, on which Egypt depends for sustenance, is appropriated each year by the USCongress.
Washington's powerful Israel lobby, which dominates Congress, could choke offUS food aid to Egypt. Sadat and Mubarak gave Israel decisive influence overEgypt's policies in exchange for food aid and billions of dollars, a fact thatenrages Egypt's Islamists and nationalists.
Mubarak's Egypt is the cornerstone of America's Mideast Raj (dominion). Egypt's469,000-man armed forces, 397,000 paramilitary police, and ferocious secretpolice keep the regime in power and crush all dissent.
Though large, Egypt's military is starved by Washington of modern weapons,ammo, and spare parts so it cannot war against Israel. Its sole function iskeeping the US-backed regime in power.
Mubarak has long been a key ally of Israel in battling Islamist and nationalistgroups. Egypt and Israel collaborate on penning up Hamas-led Palestinians inGaza. Hamas is a militant offshoot of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, and thusgreatly feared by Cairo for its calls to root out corruption, share nationalwealth, impose Islamic justice, and cease automatic obedience to US policies.
Egypt is now building a new steel wall on the Gaza border with US assistance.Mubarak's Wall, which will go down 40 feet, is designed to block tunnelsthrough which Gaza Palestinians rely for supplies. Egypt and Israel claimMubarak's wall is to prevent arms from being smuggled into Gaza. The EastGerman regime also claimed its notorious wall was for security reasons.
While Washington fulminates against Iran, Burma, and China over human rights,it says nothing about client Egypt, where all elections are rigged, regimeopponents brutally tortured, and political opposition liquidated.
Washington could quickly impose real democracy to Egypt, where it pulls all thestrings, if it wanted. But it does not. In 1991-92, the Arab world's firsttruly free election was held in military-run Algeria. The Islamist oppositionwon a landslide. Algeria's generals, urged on by France and the US, annulledthe vote and arrested opposition leaders. The Arab world's second free vote washeld in Palestine, and resulted in a landslide for Hamas. The US, Israel andEgypt immediately moved to annul the election and pen up Hamas in the open-airprison of Gaza.
Ayman Nur, the last man who dared run in an election against the eternalMubarak - "pharaoh" to Islamist opponents - was arrested and tortured.Washington only issued a few mild tut-tuts.
Now, as Mubarak's health fails, the US and Israel are increasingly alarmed hisdeath could produce a political eruption in long-repressed Egypt.
Mubarak has been trying to groom his son, Gamal, to succeed him. But Egyptiansare deeply opposed. The powerful 72-year old intelligence chief, Gen. OmarSuleiman, an ally of the US and Israel, is another possible strongman. CIA willalso be grooming other army or air force generals for the job.
Egypt's secular political opposition barely exists. The regime's real opponentremains the relatively moderate, popular, Islamic Brotherhood. It would win afree election hands down. But the Brotherhood's leadership is old and tired.Younger, more dynamic leaders have all been jailed or bought off. Half ofEgyptians are under 20.
Mohammed el- Baradai, the intelligent, highly respected Egyptian former UNnuclear chief, is calling for real democracy in his homeland. He presents themost attractive candidate to lead post-Mubarak Egypt. But the regime hasalready begun moving against him.
Washington would do well to back the popular el-Baradei, even if he refuses totoe the line. Better having independent-minded moderate allies with a popularmandate than more despots or military oligarchs. Have we learned nothing fromIran?
Washington hopes it can ease another compliant general into power and keep thesecurity forces loyal before thirty years of pent-up fury at Mubarak'sdictatorship, Egypt's political emasculation, thirst for change, and direpoverty produce a volcanic eruption on the Nile.
If Egypt erupts, the US-backed regimes of Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and SaudiArabia could be next.
****************
"If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of
the oppressor" - Archbishop Desmund Tutu
Personal website: www.monabaker.com
by Eric Margolis
Egypt is facing a potential political eruption that could rock the entireMideast and seriously undermine US domination of the strategic region.
This threat comes as tensions in the Mideast are already extremely high.Threats of war involving US, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran are flying fastand furious.
President Husni Mubarak, the US-supported strongman who has ruled Egypt with aniron hand for almost 30 years, is 81 and in frail health. Amazingly, he has nodesignated successor. No one knows who will take over Egypt when he dies.
For Mubarak, it may be "après moi, le deluge." Dealing with elderly dictatorsis always an extremely tricky business.
Mubarak, an air force general, was put into power with US help after theassassination of President Anwar Sadat by nationalist soldiers in 1981. Sadathad been a CIA "asset" since 1952.
My sharp-tongued mother interviewed Sadat in the 1950's and described him as a"clown." Sadat was a hero in the US and Israel, but Egyptians hated him andgreeted his killing with jubilation.
Egypt, with 82 million people, is the most populous and important Arab nation.Cairo has long been the cultural center of the Arab world. It is also anovercrowded madhouse with eight million people (12 million in the great Cairoarea) crammed into an early 20th century colonial city built for 500,000.Cairo's population has tripled since I lived there as a boy in 1957.
About 28% all Arabs are Egyptians. Deduct North Africa, known as the Maghreb -and not traditionally part of the Arab heartland - and Egypt counts for a thirdof all Arabs. The Nilotic Egyptians are quite different ethnically from theArabs of Arabia, Syria and Iraq, but they all share a mostly common language,religion, and sense of pan-Arab identity.
Egypt was once the heart and soul of the Arab and Muslim world. Under Sadat'spredecessor, the widely adored nationalist, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt led theArab world. By contrast, Egyptians despised successor Sadat as a corruptWestern toady, and sullenly accepted Mubarak.
After three decades under Mubarak, Egypt has become a political and culturalbackwater, and a virtual American protectorate. Its political, intellectual,and religious life have been hand-cuffed by the security police.
In a very telling incident, Mubarak recently flew to Germany for gall bladderand colon surgery. After some $85 billion in US aid, Mubarak could not eventrust a local hospital in the Arab world's leading nation to perform hisoperation.
The US gives Egypt $1.3 billion annually in military aid to keep the generalscontent, and about $700 million in economic aid, not counting large but secretCIA stipends to key generals, high officials, intelligence chiefs and Egypt'smedia. A small business elite attached to Mubarak has grown wealthy while therest of Egypt remains mired in poverty, with a per capita national incomearound $1,600 per annum.
Egypt does not have enough arable land to feed its growing population, and mustimport 50% of its foodstuffs, mostly subsidized, low-cost US wheat. This foodaid, on which Egypt depends for sustenance, is appropriated each year by the USCongress.
Washington's powerful Israel lobby, which dominates Congress, could choke offUS food aid to Egypt. Sadat and Mubarak gave Israel decisive influence overEgypt's policies in exchange for food aid and billions of dollars, a fact thatenrages Egypt's Islamists and nationalists.
Mubarak's Egypt is the cornerstone of America's Mideast Raj (dominion). Egypt's469,000-man armed forces, 397,000 paramilitary police, and ferocious secretpolice keep the regime in power and crush all dissent.
Though large, Egypt's military is starved by Washington of modern weapons,ammo, and spare parts so it cannot war against Israel. Its sole function iskeeping the US-backed regime in power.
Mubarak has long been a key ally of Israel in battling Islamist and nationalistgroups. Egypt and Israel collaborate on penning up Hamas-led Palestinians inGaza. Hamas is a militant offshoot of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, and thusgreatly feared by Cairo for its calls to root out corruption, share nationalwealth, impose Islamic justice, and cease automatic obedience to US policies.
Egypt is now building a new steel wall on the Gaza border with US assistance.Mubarak's Wall, which will go down 40 feet, is designed to block tunnelsthrough which Gaza Palestinians rely for supplies. Egypt and Israel claimMubarak's wall is to prevent arms from being smuggled into Gaza. The EastGerman regime also claimed its notorious wall was for security reasons.
While Washington fulminates against Iran, Burma, and China over human rights,it says nothing about client Egypt, where all elections are rigged, regimeopponents brutally tortured, and political opposition liquidated.
Washington could quickly impose real democracy to Egypt, where it pulls all thestrings, if it wanted. But it does not. In 1991-92, the Arab world's firsttruly free election was held in military-run Algeria. The Islamist oppositionwon a landslide. Algeria's generals, urged on by France and the US, annulledthe vote and arrested opposition leaders. The Arab world's second free vote washeld in Palestine, and resulted in a landslide for Hamas. The US, Israel andEgypt immediately moved to annul the election and pen up Hamas in the open-airprison of Gaza.
Ayman Nur, the last man who dared run in an election against the eternalMubarak - "pharaoh" to Islamist opponents - was arrested and tortured.Washington only issued a few mild tut-tuts.
Now, as Mubarak's health fails, the US and Israel are increasingly alarmed hisdeath could produce a political eruption in long-repressed Egypt.
Mubarak has been trying to groom his son, Gamal, to succeed him. But Egyptiansare deeply opposed. The powerful 72-year old intelligence chief, Gen. OmarSuleiman, an ally of the US and Israel, is another possible strongman. CIA willalso be grooming other army or air force generals for the job.
Egypt's secular political opposition barely exists. The regime's real opponentremains the relatively moderate, popular, Islamic Brotherhood. It would win afree election hands down. But the Brotherhood's leadership is old and tired.Younger, more dynamic leaders have all been jailed or bought off. Half ofEgyptians are under 20.
Mohammed el- Baradai, the intelligent, highly respected Egyptian former UNnuclear chief, is calling for real democracy in his homeland. He presents themost attractive candidate to lead post-Mubarak Egypt. But the regime hasalready begun moving against him.
Washington would do well to back the popular el-Baradei, even if he refuses totoe the line. Better having independent-minded moderate allies with a popularmandate than more despots or military oligarchs. Have we learned nothing fromIran?
Washington hopes it can ease another compliant general into power and keep thesecurity forces loyal before thirty years of pent-up fury at Mubarak'sdictatorship, Egypt's political emasculation, thirst for change, and direpoverty produce a volcanic eruption on the Nile.
If Egypt erupts, the US-backed regimes of Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and SaudiArabia could be next.
****************
"If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of
the oppressor" - Archbishop Desmund Tutu
Personal website: www.monabaker.com
2 opmerkingen:
Uit het verkiezingsprogramma van de PVV:
Israël is een weergaloos succes. Geboren in het donkerste moment van de twintigste eeuw en uitgegroeid tot een centrum van technologische vooruitgang. Israël is de enige democratie in het Midden-Oosten, de thuisbasis van het Joodse volk na tweeduizend jaar ballingschap en het land dat als geen ander de klappen van de jihad opvangt. Israël vecht voor ons. Als Jeruzalem valt, dan zijn Athene en Rome aan de beurt. Daarom is Israël het centrale front in de verdediging van het Westen.
Daarom moeten we alles op alles zetten om het offensief van de linksen en de mohammedanen om Israël te vernietigen te stoppen. Nederland en de EU dienen onmiddellijk op te houden met eisen dat Israël zichzelf met het doen van territoriale concessies veroordeelt tot onverdedigbare grenzen. Land voor vrede heeft geen zin. Het is geen territoriaal maar een ideologisch conflict, een conflict tussen de rede van het vrije Westen en het barbarisme van de islamitische ideologie.
Klopt. Het is de rede van het vrije westen die de Indianen en de oorspronkelijke Australiërs uitgeroeid heeft en de slavenschepen gevuld.
En dat Hitler in het geheim een moslim was is kennis die door de linksen en de mohammedanen zelf wordt achtergehouden.
Als ik in de VS vertel dat Nederland misschien wel zijn eerste premier met joodse achtergrond krijgt wordt mij meteen gevraagd: een zionistische fascist?
Nee, dat is die geblondeerde, moet ik dan zeggen.
Nederland als nachtmerrie.
Een reactie posten