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“Israel” is quite proficient at killing people. In less than a year they have killed 40,000 civilians in Gaza, and last week killed 2,000 more in Lebanon. Unofficial estimates of the real death toll in Gaza, as opposed to the officially recovered, counted, and identified bodies, exceed 200,000.
As they slaughter vast numbers of women and children under the flimsiest excuses, the Zionists also kill the political and diplomatic leaders with whom wiser leaders would be negotiating. They apparently have not considered that for each civilian they kill, dozens of furious survivors and onlookers become long-term anti-Zionist combatants-in-waiting. And they don’t seem to realize that martyring political and diplomatic leaders gives fighters added incentive to up their game, and leaves them no option but to do so. That’s why, in the wake of the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Israel’s attempted invasion of Lebanon has been shockingly (to the Zionists) unsuccessful.
Randomly murdering tens of thousands of civilians, or assassinating a handful of leaders, superficially looks like tactical success. Richie Allen seemed to think that Israel’s terrorist attack on non-combatants associated with Hezbollah via exploding pagers was an impressive achievement.* As I told him, just about anybody who really wants to randomly murder that number of people, or more, can do so if they so choose. The fact that Israeli leaders employed such an elaborate Rube Goldberg scheme to mass murder noncombatants—to counterproductive strategic effect—reveals the Israelis as psychopathic idiots and shameless war criminals, not geniuses.
The appearance of tactical success achieved by Israel’s pointless murders conceals a colossal strategic failure. The root of that failure is simple: Netanyahu has no idea what he is trying to achieve, other than keep the war going so he can stay in office and out of prison. His extremist coalition parters, Smotrich and Ben Gvir, do have a vision—“exterminate Amalek”—but since this is 2024, not the Bronze Age, that isn’t going to happen. Israel can kill a small fraction of today’s “Amalek” but for every Amalek they kill, ten or a hundred more will spring up. Long before Israel killed even 5% of its current Amalek enemies it would have transformed most of the world’s 8 billion non-Jews into a new, even more angry and determined Amalek.
Netanyahu’s official war aims in Gaza are (1) eliminate Hamas, and (2) use military force to bring back the Israeli hostages alive. Both are obviously impossible, as Israel’s military and intelligence leaders have reiterated. Hamas is just a current name for Islamic resistance to Zionist genocide, and that resistance is an idea that can’t be eliminated by military means. And military attempts to snatch back hostages will almost always lead to the deaths of those hostages.
Since he has set impossible war aims, and has no realistic ones, Netanyahu is bogged down in a war on Gaza that he, and Israel, will inevitably lose. And now he is making an even worse mistake by invading Lebanon and stepping into an even bigger quagmire. Once again, Netanyahu has declared goals that cannot be realized: (1) Defeat Hezbollah, which like Hamas is simply the local form of Islamic resistance to genocide, an idea that cannot be defeated militarily, and (2) Change the military equation so that Zionist settlers can return to the occupied northern territories. But unlike in 2006, when Hezbollah defeated Israel with only a tiny fraction of the arsenal and army it now possesses, the Lebanese anti-terror group now has long-range rockets that can hit those northern territories from anywhere in Lebanon (and from parts of Syria and Iraq for that matter). Obviously there is no evident military path to enabling the northern settlers to return.
Endgame: Masada 2.0
Since the officially-declared vision of what Israeli “victory” would look like is impossible, while a conventional military defeat of “Israel” also seems unlikely due to the Zionists’ advantage in heavy weapons, how can this war possibly end? The most likely ending will involve some form of Masada 2.0. The original Masada, which of course is a myth not a historical reality, involved a civil war in which fanatical Jews were slaughtered by even more fanatical Jews, who then committed mass suicide rather than surrender to the Romans.
Masada 2.0 will similarly pit Jewish fanatics (the remnants of Labor Zionists) against even loonier ultra-fanatics (Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and the rest of the messianic-millenarian maniacs). The moment of truth will come when Israelis collectively wake up and realize that Israel is bogged down in two hopeless quagmires, and that Netanyahu’s stated war aims are a pipe dream: The Israeli captives will never be brought back alive by military means, Hamas is still around and will remain so, Hezbollah can keep raining missiles on “Israel” indefinitely, and the settlers won’t return to the north without a peace agreement that would amount to an Israeli surrender (given the impossible declared war aims).
At this point the Zionists capable of rational strategic thinking will come into conflict with those who are not so capable—the Smotriches and Ben-Gvirs who imagine that if they only commit enough abominations their messiah will magically appear to save them. The strategic Zionists will see and accept the inevitability of a strategic retreat, while the messianic-millenarian lunatics will see that as a betrayal of all that is holy. The “sane Zionists” (I know that’s an oxymoron) will recognize that Israel’s only path to long-term existence as a “Jewish state” would be to somehow revive the two-state solution involving withdrawal from 1967-occupied territories. But the messianic-millenarian fanatics and the half-million settlers on those territories, like the ultras in the Masada legend, would rather die than compromise. When push comes to shove, and Netanyahu is finally scapegoated and sacrificed for his war failures, open fighting is likely to break out between the two factions. It may involve targeted assassinations, as happened to Yitzhak Rabin in 1995. Mob violence, possibly on a grand scale, is another possibility.
If the strategic Zionists win, and the war ends with at least the illusion of an Israeli return to “normalcy” featuring a promised and apparently viable path to a Palestinian state including all of the 1967-occupied land with East Jerusalem as its capital, more than a few of the millenarian lunatics may very well commit mass suicide, whether by their own hands or in a “suicide by cop” scenario when they are removed from the Occupied Territories by the IDF. And thus Masada 2.0 would take the “mass suicide rather than surrender” motif from myth into history.
If the messianic-millenarian lunatics win again, as they did with their assassination of Rabin in 1995, “Israel” will descend into chaos. Frenzied mobs will go berserk, awaiting their Messiah to lead them to ultimate victory over the gentiles. Almost all competent Israelis will have long since left, while the ten-children-per-family ultra-religious Zionists who don’t know how to do anything except bake unleavened bread and sit around all day chanting the Torah and poring over the Talmud will be all that remains. Economic collapse and political chaos will ensue. Military defense against the world’s two billion Muslims, who will never forgive or forget the Zionist genocide, will become impossible, especially as the US empire’s influence recedes. Ultimately the Holy Land will be absorbed back into the Islamic world.
The above assessment may sound partisan, given my sympathies for the Islamic resistance. But my prognosis is widely shared by well-informed people across the ideological spectrum. Indeed, I have merely spelled out the outspoken parts of what the well-informed segment of the world’s Zionist leadership knows all-too-well. Thomas Friedman, who calls Netanyahu “the worst leader not only in Israeli history, but in Jewish history” has been bemoaning the current Israeli leadership’s colossal strategic failures since last October. And Friedman is not an outlier. He represents the views of Zionist leaders, both in “Israel” and the West, who have thought things through.
So why are the majority of Zionists, including most of the Zionist-dominated media, reflexively supporting Netanyahu’s doomed non-strategy? Mainly because most of them are not as well-informed as Thomas Friedman. Zionists, whose partisanship has infused media and decision-making circles, inhabit a propaganda bubble that bears little relation to reality. High on their own supply, they almost involuntarily cheer for Israel whenever they see it under attack, drooling and growling on command like a pack of Pavlov’s dogs. Like their millenarian-messianic fanatic counterparts, secular Zionists are blinded by tribal loyalty. They are very good at not seeing things they don’t want to see.
When Israel implodes into Masada 2.0, the collective blindness of the larger Jewish tribe, not just its most extreme fanatics, will be the reason.
https://www.unz.com/kbarrett/why-israel-cant-win/#comments
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