'8 really, really scary predictionshttp://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.market_gurus.fortune/index.html
Dw 4,000. Food shortages. A bubble in Treasury notes. Fortune spoke to eight of the market's sharpest thinkers and what they had to say about the future is frightening.
Known as Dr. Doom, the NYU economics professor saw the mortgage-related meltdown coming.
We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it. It was excessive in everything from subprime to prime, from credit cards to student loans, from corporate bonds to muni bonds. You name it. And it's all reversing right now in a very, very massive way. At this point it's not just a U.S. recession. All of the advanced economies are at the beginning of a hard landing. And emerging markets, beginning with China, are in a severe slowdown. So we're having a global recession and it's becoming worse.
Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5%
- that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010.
For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds.
It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough. I wish I could be more cheerful, but I was right a year ago, and I think I'll be right this year too.'
3 opmerkingen:
Mwoah, behoorlijk positieve man, hij heeft nog het idee dat de VS er nog bovenop komt...
Ik denk niet dat dat lukken gaat, de VS is bankroet en het is slechts te hopen dat ze niet de hele wereld meesleuren middels een kernoorlog!!!!
Haaretz: Obama's atomic umbrella: U.S. nuclear strike if Iran nukes Israel
U.S. President-elect Barack Obama's administration will offer Israel a "nuclear umbrella" against the threat of a nuclear attack by Iran, a well-placed American source said earlier this week. The source, who is close to the new administration, said the U.S. will declare that an attack on Israel by Tehran would result in a devastating U.S. nuclear response against Iran.
Daarnaast India vs Pakistan: een nieuwe nucleaire Koude Oorlog? Dan valt er weer flink te verdienen. Toevallig is dat precies wat Amerika nodig heeft - dacht ik.
Sure Sonja, dat stuk heb ik al op mijn site geplaatst (uit The Raw Story)
Ik vrees dat een nieuwe wereldoorlog onvermijdelijk is....
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