China Rising Radio Sinoland:
"The peace dividend has ended, and it is time for China to prepare for a complete decoupling" - Today's Toutiao
Translation for you in English,
No more illusion in China that the barbarians will accept coexistence and win-win. WLC
"The peace dividend is over, it's time for China to have to prepare for a full decoupling"
School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University
[Introduction] Since the change between China and the United States in 2018, the world situation has been in turmoil, and various "decoupling theories" at home and abroad have become popular. Especially since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international situation has shown a clear camp-like pattern, and the United States has targeted China from all aspects of its domestic and foreign affairs. Although many people believe that globalization is irreversible and do not believe that there will be a day of complete decoupling, if there is a complete decoupling in the future, how should we deal with it?
This article argues that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a symbolic event in the end of the globalization tide led by the United States, which means that China no longer has the peaceful external development environment of the past 40 years. The author points out that the current seemingly "rule-based order" is actually a center-periphery hierarchical international order dominated by Western countries. Because of their strong ability to manage and control capital, China and Russia have become the last two obstacles for the United States to further control the global periphery, and it is inevitable that they will be fully suppressed by the West. Therefore, China must re-examine the past tradition of multilateralism, adjust the spatial priority of foreign exchanges, and reshape a new international environment that is conducive to China's national security and long-term development.
The author believes that in the future, China will promote the construction of a new global system, that is, a "three-ring" international system to ensure China's national security and development : the first ring is East Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East around China. Form a system of close industrial division of labor, and obtain stable energy supply and reliable security barriers through them; the second ring is the developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with which China exchanges raw materials and industrial products, and assists their development; the third ring is Expand to traditional industrialized countries dominated by Europe and the United States. Among them, the "first ring" is the key to China's construction of the "new third ring" international system. In recent decades, developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America have formed a new global system. The solid foundations of developing countries in terms of economic volume, trade exchanges, and economic cooperation are not what they used to be. To further enhance economic and political autonomy, we must get rid of financial and monetary dependence on Western countries. Therefore, to build the "new three-ring" international system, a higher level and wider range of financial and monetary cooperation should be developed among developing countries
This article was originally published in the 3rd issue of "Cultural Landscape" in 2022 (June issue), with the original title "Constructing the "New Three Rings": Facing the Possible China's Choice for Comprehensive Decoupling" , which only represents the author's point of view for everyone to think about.
Building the "New Three Rings": China's Choice in the Face of a Possible Comprehensive Decoupling
Russia's "special military operation" against Ukraine, and the ensuing full-scale confrontation between Western countries and Russia, is a landmark event in the end of the globalization tide since the 1980s. The United States has hijacked its allies to impose deadly sanctions on Russia, and coerced other countries in the world to choose sides between Western countries and Russia. The world is reappearing the scene of life-and-death battles a hundred years ago, and it also brings huge challenges to China. The "end of globalization" makes China no longer have the external development environment of the past 40 years to use. The United States promotes the process of rebuilding the international system dominated by it and "decoupling" from China and Russia, which is very likely to be further strengthened in the future. The characteristics of the times in today's world have undergone a paradigm change. Faced with the possibility of passive and comprehensive decoupling, China needs to actively adjust its foreign strategic arrangements and make a new choice on the priority of state exchanges, so as to shape a new type of international system that is conducive to hedging the negative impact of Western countries' decoupling from China.
▍The unspoken rule of the international order is the center-periphery power structure
In the 30 years since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia has moved from actively moving toward the United States and Western countries at first, to gradually alienating them, and even now fighting fiercely, highlighting the political limits of globalization. Contrary to people's romantic imagination of globalization, the latest round of globalization was originally an investment of American hegemony, partially serving the purpose of dismantling the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc, which made it impossible to expand indefinitely. From the perspective of the relationship between the leading countries and following countries of globalization, or the developed countries and developing countries, there is a limit of equality in international politics: when globalization backfires on the initiators and threatens their power advantages, the global The transformation will inevitably be "reversed", and the operating path will be redesigned. The process of globalization in recent decades and America's pursuit of power advantage are two sides of the same coin. The two are mutually conditional and mutually advanced. Russia's "special military operation" against Ukraine is the result of this round of globalization that has completely exposed its power and brought an end to the globalization led by the United States
The eastward expansion of NATO is the main reason for Russia to take the initiative. This appears to be a security issue, but in fact it is also an economic issue in the process of globalization. Peripheralizing the Soviet Union in the global system is the goal of the globalization process initiated by the United States. Russia’s desire to use globalization to achieve national rejuvenation and become a central country is obviously contrary to the logic of its occurrence and evolution. Global capital, especially financial capital's interest in Russia, is more concentrated in energy, food and minerals, which are areas where financial capital can make huge profits. However, since Putin came to power, Russia has strengthened its control over key industries related to national security and basic people's livelihood, and is committed to building the Eurasian Economic Union and creating an economic development space suitable for itself, which is not welcome by external capital. The eastward expansion of NATO is the embodiment of capital’s influence on politics to achieve market expansion. It constantly squeezes Russia’s development space and aggravates Russia’s externalization. If no effective response is made, Russia will be further fixed in the position of primary product provider and lose its position as a primary product provider. The ability to participate in great power politics, and even a domestic crisis. This is what the Russian elite does not want to see.
The eastward expansion of NATO and the current frenzied sanctions against Russia by Western countries have revealed the power structure of the contemporary world. After the end of World War II, the European colonial system gradually disintegrated. Since the second half of the 20th century, the clear rules of the international order have been centered on the United Nations and international law, and embody the principle of sovereign equality of states. However, the center-periphery hierarchical international order under the European colonial system has not really disappeared, but has continued to this day as an unspoken rule and an implicit order, but the absolute hierarchical power relations characterized by direct drive in the past no longer exist. It is based on the "common but differentiated" international order, that is, all countries have equal sovereignty on the surface, but there are still power differences in actual operation. "Rule-based order" is the main expression of this order, all countries need to abide by the same rules, but the real connotation of this rule is not centered on the United Nations and international law, but centered on Western countries.
U.S. hegemony since the postwar period and the G7 established after the 1970s are the main manifestations of the contemporary version of the global center-periphery order. The annual meeting of the G7 discusses more than just seven countries. The matter is also the matter of the whole world, and they are negotiated and then pushed to be transformed into global rules. The "rule-based order" is actually "the rule-based order established by Western countries", and who is the rule maker is the key. In the global division of labor system, rule-making, money supply and industrial product production are the affairs of a few countries in the center. If other countries want to join in, they may disintegrate the dominant position of a few countries. This is the mastery of the rules. Countries that have the right to formulate and dominate the currency and maintain a technological advantage with intellectual property do not want to see it. China's unexpected economic growth in recent decades has broken the center-periphery international order since the postwar period, threatening the unspoken rules centered on Western countries. In recent years, the United States has defined China as a major "strategic competitor" "The main reason is that China's development has touched the cheese of the United States and other Western countries. The latter never imagined that China can also "enter the center of the world stage", even now It's actually just "getting closer".
Whether it is the eastward expansion of NATO or the US's selection of China as a key target of suppression, it all reflects that the US and Western countries want to maintain and strengthen their own power advantages. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Ukrainian sanctions against Russia are further highlighted by the fact that most countries in the world are in the "rural areas" in the periphery, a few countries are in the "cities" in the center, and the United States is the "Downtown", "city" in the global "urban center" does not want to see "rural" become "urban" like them. The hindrance of China and Russia to the global "city center" lies not only in their strong ability to control capital, making them the last two largest undisciplined places of capitalist globalization; much greater national power, and become an obstacle for the "urban center" to gain further control over the "rural" fringes of the world. In the process of this round of globalization, China, with its strong economic growth and comprehensive national strength, has shown a trend of moving from "rural" to "urban". In recent years, it has become the leader of "de-globalization", which has exposed the "common" limits of the post-war international order. China has also become a member of the "city" that the heartland countries cannot tolerate.
▍The basic plate of China's multilateral cooperation lies in non-Western countries
In "An Analysis of All Classes in Chinese Society", the first chapter of "Selected Works of Mao Zedong", the opening question asks: "Who are our enemies? Who are our friends? This question is the primary question of the revolution." In the past few years, the reform and opening up, and the proposal to build a community with a shared future for mankind in recent years, no longer deliberately emphasize the distinction between enemies and friends in international exchanges, but hope to promote "the beauty of the United States and the beauty of the world" in the "beauty of each, and the beauty of the beautiful". ". But whether the world can achieve "Great Harmony" is not determined by the wishes of the Chinese family. With the US-led Western countries showing an all-round confrontation with Russia and China, the characteristics of the contemporary world can no longer be regarded as "peace and development" mechanically, but "competition" and even "war" need to be seriously considered ——Even if the war can be ruled out, it is impossible to achieve better development in the globalization system dominated by Western countries as always. China has to rethink the "primary question" in its foreign exchanges: who are the possible partners of China at present and in the future, and who are the partners that China cannot hold?
Birds of a feather flock together. The same is true of countries. Countries with similar experiences, situations and demands are more likely to form long-term cooperative relationships. In the contemporary discourse system of international relations, Western countries vs non-Western countries, developed countries vs developing countries, northern countries vs southern countries are common distinctions between countries. Developed countries and northern countries are mostly Western countries, while southern countries and developing countries are mostly Western countries. The countries are all non-Western countries. Unlike the distinction between developed countries and developing countries, and northern countries and southern countries, which is biased toward the economic level, the distinction between Western countries and non-Western countries also points to the political and cultural level, which implies global power relations. Since the 19th century, under the influence of three key elements, industrialization, rational state building and "progressive ideology", the world has undergone a "Global Transformation" : a "centerless and pluralistic world" that used to be in a discrete state. , turned to a highly interconnected and hierarchical "center-periphery" global international system, with the West at the center of this order. In the revolutionary era from the late 19th century to the first half of the 20th century, the frequently discussed "imperialism" was the description and characterization of this order relationship. Imperialism and globalization in the middle and late 19th century to the early 20th century are two sides of the same body. Imperialism comes with globalization, while globalization strengthens imperialism. Barrel array", trying to escape from it is not easy. Western countries used to be the center of the global system and the birthplace of imperialism. The colonial order in the modern world and the hegemony of the United States since the mid-to-late 20th century have all come from this; at the same time, many revolutions in modern times, including the 20 What the anti-colonial movement in the mid-to-late century was trying to break was this center-periphery power structure of inequality and injustice.
In the center-periphery global power structure, it is impossible for the countries in the heartland to truly help the revolution of the countries in the peripheral regions, nor would they welcome the countries in the peripheral regions to join the countries in the central region in an equal manner. The fate of being deprived can only rely on the grouping of countries in the peripheral areas to keep warm, and in occasional situations, the gaps between the countries in the central area must be used to strive for cooperation with the latter in the struggle. During the Chinese revolution in the first half of the 20th century and the consolidation of the regime in the second half of the 20th century, the main external forces that China relied on came from the periphery of the global system. The Communist International network, which the Communist Party of China once participated in, was an alliance between the non-regime forces of the colonized and oppressed nations at that time; during the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, China took the opportunity of participating in the World Anti-Fascist War to continue the "anti-imperialist" demands of the previous Chinese revolution. , to further promote the abolition of the various unequal rights imposed on China by imperialist countries; after the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, China attached great importance to cooperation with "Third World" countries, and supported anti-colonial movements and anti-colonial movements in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The country building after independence, especially the active participation in the Bandung Conference in 1955 and the proposal of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, has been well echoed by the Asian, African and Latin American countries, and has also become an important node in the virtuous circle of relations between China and the Asian, African and Latin American countries. With the support of the latter, China returned to the United Nations in 1971 and became a permanent member of the Security Council.
The mutual solidarity and assistance between China and the Asian, African and Latin American countries in resisting colonial rule and in national construction has laid a key feature of China's multilateralism since modern times, that is, attaching great importance to cooperation with non-Western developing countries and building a common resistance against central countries. Defend national independence and development and progress in the unequal and unjust international order. In its all-round diplomacy based on non-Western developing countries, China does not exclude exchanges and even the development of friendly and cooperative relations with Western developed countries and other major powers. However, it should also be noted that in the past, China's exchanges and cooperation with countries in the heartland have always had two preconditions: First, from the perspective of China, China insists on developing its foreign relations on the basis of independence, equality and mutual benefit, and opposes the development of foreign relations in international relations. Power hierarchy; second, from the perspective of countries in the center, they always have a ceiling in cooperation with China, that is, they cannot shake the global power structure centered on Western countries. When either of these two premises changes, it will be difficult for China, as a developing country, to continue to develop in-depth cooperative relations, especially political cooperative relations, with Western countries.
▍Adjusting the spatial priority of China's foreign exchanges
In the past 40 years, China has abandoned ideological differences and avoided differences in national systems, and has been committed to cooperation with all countries, gradually forming a foreign exchange in which "big powers are the key, neighboring countries are the primary, developing countries are the foundation, and multilateralism is an important stage". pattern. But this pattern has encountered many obstacles at the time of the "end of globalization". The "decoupling" initiated by the United States coercing other Western countries with China in terms of economy, technology, knowledge, and personnel exchanges is unlikely to be withdrawn due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. On the contrary, it may intensify.
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, it has experienced many changes in the direction of its diplomacy, from the "one-sidedness" at the time of the founding of the People's Republic of China, to the division of "one line, one large area" and "three worlds" in the 1970s, to the division of "three worlds" after 1978. Turning to reform and opening up, focusing on development and cooperation with Western countries, all responded to the situation at that time. At the time of the current "big changes unseen in a century", Western countries have shown a stronger and stronger intention to suppress potential challengers. Especially after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, groups of Western countries have assembled to suppress non-Western countries in all aspects. The situation is fully exposed and will become the structural presence of international relations for a long time to come. China cannot but be highly vigilant that Western countries' all-encompassing sanctions and suppression measures against Russia will be imitated on China in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to re-examine China's past tradition of multilateralism, adjust the spatial pattern of foreign exchanges, and strengthen cooperation with non-Western developing countries, so as to create a new international environment conducive to safeguarding China's national security and long-term development.
In 1974, Mao Zedong proposed the division of "three worlds", and made a distinction and analysis of the three types of countries in the world at that time and the ways China could interact with them. It is also a member of the "Third World" countries. The Chinese government and people firmly support the just struggle of all oppressed people and nations. The "Three Worlds" theory inherits the previous experience of China's foreign exchanges and ranks the spatial priority of China's foreign exchanges at that time. It is also an important ideological guide for China's participation in South-South cooperation in the past. The spatial priority still has strong instructive significance. Compared with the fact that China has attached more importance to cooperation with Western countries since the reform and opening up, China will put the promotion of South-South cooperation in a prominent position in the future. Whether it is seeking diplomatic breakthrough, long-term development or national rejuvenation, for a long time to come, China's foreign strategic arrangements will focus on promoting the construction of a new global system based on Asia and its surrounding regions. The final result is to form a "three-ring" international system to ensure China's national security and development: the first ring is East Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East around China. East Asia connects the world's financial resources, and China and countries in this region have formed close industries. The division of labor system, Central Asia and the Middle East connect the world's resources, China must rely on the countries in this region to obtain stable energy supply and reliable security barriers; the second link is the vast developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with which China supplies raw materials and industrial products. China's foreign aid should also be mainly aimed at these countries; the third ring extends to traditional industrialized countries dominated by Europe and the United States, with which China exchanges industrial products, technologies and knowledge. Based on this "three-ring" structure, we should arrange the priorities and front and back of external exchanges, and re-plan the direction and content of external exchanges.
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