Trump’s re-election redistributes the cards
We are going through one of the rare moments when the great powers all change their policies at the same time. Be careful not to make a mistake: those who miss the train will have to wait for the next one. The re-election of Donald Trump, despite the campaign of almost all Western intellectuals against him, redistributes the cards.
International relations are changing extremely quickly on several fronts at once.
The last two weeks have shown that Iran has abandoned its revolutionary ideal and distanced itself from its Sunni allies in Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and even Shiites in Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi and Yemeni Ansar Allah [1]. These points are largely confirmed by the meeting during which Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated by the IDF "thanks" to Iranian information, the confusing statements of Ayatollah Ali Sistani in Iraq, and the measures taken to prevent the assassination of Abdel Malek al-Houthi in Yemen [2].
Then, we showed that the BRICS, at the Kazan summit, affirmed their attachment to international law against the “rules-based order” of the Anglo-Saxons [3].
This week, Donald Trump’s landslide victory in the US elections marks the triumph of the Jacksonians over the Democrats, but also over the Republicans, although Trump was supported by their party. It should follow that the United States will cease its wars in Ukraine and the Middle East in favor of an all-out trade war.
On the European continent, we witnessed in the United Kingdom the fall of Rishi Sunak and his replacement by a member of the Trilateral Commission (i.e. support of US business interests), Keir Starmer. We expect, in Germany, the fall of Chancellor Olaf Schloz and, in France, that of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, without knowing who will replace them.
In the West, these events have the same meaning everywhere: neo-conservative ideology and woke religion are condemned in favor of the defense of nations. This is a revolt of the middle classes. These, who are not xenophobic, no longer accept being sacrificed, in the name of the specialization of the world imposed by Anglo-Saxon globalization.
Generally speaking, in the coming years we are moving towards abandoning both the imperialist will of the Anglo-Saxons and the anti-imperialist will of Iran. At the same time, we should see a strengthening of international law, although it is not recognized by the Jacksonians. However, they admit, in commercial matters, the importance of signatures. It is likely that Washington will push the Three Seas Initiative into Central Europe after forcing Ukraine to admit defeat to Russia. This will result in the rise of Poland to the detriment of Germany and a weakening of the European Union. The United States and BRICS will agree on the need to cooperate, but will clash over the reference status of the dollar.
These important changes are still hidden from us because we do not understand the way in which each of these actors think. We misinterpret what they say and do based on their place in the ancient world.
We are particularly blind towards the United States, which we continue to consider as our masters. We only know the neo-conservative doxa and we imagine that the United States thinks this way even though it has just freed itself from its rule. The election, or rather the re-election, of Donald Trump, his overwhelming victory for the White House as well as for Congress, marks the revolt of the US middle classes against the Western intellectuals who had all united against him.
Let us recall that Donald Trump, while a real estate developer in New York, was the first personality, on the afternoon of September 11, 2001, to question the official version of the supposedly Islamist attacks. Subsequently, he financed, within the Tea Party, the challenge to the legitimacy of President Barack Obama. Finally, he took over the Republican Party despite resistance from former Vice President Dick Cheney (who was a member of the “continuity government,” what Trump called the “deep state”). He campaigned in a new way based on observation of social networks and responding symbolically to the expectations of the middle classes. Upon his election and even before he took his seat in the White House, the Democratic Party launched a global smear campaign against him [4]. Throughout his mandate, he had to face his own collaborators who did not hesitate to lie to him and do the opposite of what he ordered them, then to brag about it. However, he managed, alone against everyone, to interrupt the "endless war" in the Middle East and the CIA’s military and financial support for Al-Qaeda and Daesh.
On the contrary, Joe Biden assembled his team from staff at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), the Rand Corporation, and from General Dynamics, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. He restarted wars in the Middle East, then started a new one in Ukraine.
We do not know whether Donald Trump will attempt to continue during his second term what he undertook during his first. He now knows the pitfalls of Washington and has put together a team that he was without the first time. The only unknown is what he had to concede to be able to win this time. His policy in the Middle East was to replace war with trade via the Abraham Accords. It was misunderstood because his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who was responsible for implementing them, is deeply racist. He also moved the United States embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, implying that it was the capital of the only Jewish state. During his campaign, he accepted considerable donations from the widow of Sheldon Adelson, an unconditional supporter of the "revisionist Zionists". No one knows whether he is committed in return to supporting the State of Israel or the colonial project of Vladimir Jabotinsky.
Donald Trump’s victory will not end the clashes, but will move them from the military battlefield to that of the economy. Be careful, to analyze his policies, the political categories with which we have been thinking since the 18th century will prove ineffective. He does not intend to choose between protectionism and free trade, but between economic sectors: the products that he will defend with customs duties because they will not be able to compete with those of his competitors, and the products that are capable of flooding the global market. Donald Trump is not the friend of all entrepreneurs, far from it. He opposes those who live off the State by selling it bad products, as the American military-industrial complex has been doing for thirty years. The notions of right and left, interventionist and isolationist are all equally obsolete. What is happening today is of a different nature.
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