After weeks of dithering, Israel finally launched its “retaliatory strike” on Iran, which no sensible person could call a “retaliation”. If only our media was run by sensible people who are capable of remembering the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria, and the assassination of Haniyeh in Iran, and the assassination of an Iranian official in Lebanon…
From what we can gather, Israel’s attack was about as effective as Hamas launching fire crackers over the Israeli border fence (sorry, apartheid wall). In other words, not very…
It looks like Israel was deceived by Iranian decoys, and that Iran’s air defences held up well, but it also appears this was not a serious attempt at escalation. Israel released a weird statement which included the following sentence: “the IDF struck air-to-surface missile arrays and additional Iranian capabilities, that were intended to restrict Israel’s aerial freedom of operation in Iran.”
It’s such a weird justification, arguing that Iran should not have sovereignty over its own territory, that Israel should be allowed to breach Iran’s airspace whenever it likes, but whatever, it looks like the damage was minimal and this was all theatre. I would be tempted to call the response “sensible” were it not for Israel’s barbaric behaviour over the last year.
Despite the lameness of the attack, Israeli media has tried to sell it as a success, and honestly, just let them get on with it. If pretending this was a humiliating defeat for Iran is how you sell de-escalation to the Israeli public, I’m all for it. Whatever saves lives…
Sadly, it seems the propaganda is not working and Israelis are unimpressed. They feel their leaders have been intimidated into backing down, and the social media response has been one of bemusement. It’s dawning Israel is not the sole superpower in the region and wars are much harder to fight when your targets aren’t schools and hospitals.
I’m old enough to remember when Israelis considered it a massive failure if your attack didn’t result in damage to civilian infrastructure. Well, life is going on as normal in Iran, and civilians, who’ve been asked if they feel afraid, have simply laughed. Contrast this to Israel where the north has been evacuated, and everyone in the south keeps fleeing to shelters, and it really looks like the balance of power is shifting.
The scale of Israel’s attack boiled down to one thing: can Israel count on the support of the US when it’s the aggressor? My guess is someone in the US crunched the numbers and worked out they can’t afford this war. Aside from the inevitable collapse of the US economy, there is the fact US supplies are running low from supporting two wars at once. It seems reality has hit home.
Netanyahu was so courageous, he hid inside a bunker while Israel’s attack was taking place (it’s only cowardly when Hamas hides underground). It looks like Israel was worried Iran might hit back with unstoppable hypersonic missiles, and given that Netanyahu’s residence was recently struck by a cheap Hezbollah drone, no Israeli official will be feeling safe. Given their brutal pager attack in Lebanon and merciless genocide in Gaza, it’s hard to feel sympathy. Fear is the only language these people understand.
Let’s not forget that Iran said it would react strongly to any response from Israel, even a small one, but now Iran must ask: is it really worth responding? Surely, it makes more sense to take this small hit than to escalate to a war that would inevitably hurt both sides.
Israel could not hope to defeat Iran without US support; it’s even ending its ground offensive in Lebanon (according to Israel’s Kan 11 News) because it’s losing so badly. Israel is, of course, claiming success, but given it has not defeated Hamas after more than a year, it’s hard to see this as anything other than an embarrassing climb down.
All Israel could do was offer Iran an off-ramp in the form of a limited strike and hope Iran accepts that offer. I think it will, but opinions in Iran differ. Seyed Mohammad Marandi posted on Twitter: “So now Zionists must wait for Iran's inevitable response. A very painful strike is coming.”
Mirandi is an Iranian professor with no ties to the IRGC, but he’s knowledgeable on these matters, so does he know something, or is he playing games? If Iran launches a massive strike on Israel, either they’ve lost their minds or have reason to be confident. Given Israel is a nuclear power, and the US would rush to Israel’s aid, I’m unclear where such confidence would come from. NATO countries have supported Israel throughout the past year and some would likely continue to do so.
One thing we know is both sides have the capability to breach the other’s air defences. While Israel has by far the better air defences and fighter jets, Iran has by far the better missiles. While Israel has the backing of the US, Iran has a far more cost effective military strategy. If Iran launches a rocket that Israel intercepts, that will cost Israel potentially one hundred times more than it will cost Iran. It would be easy for Iran to saturate Israel’s air defences and deal it a huge economic blow.
While Israel could respond in kind, much of Iran’s military infrastructure is underground, and even trying to take that out would be extremely difficult. This was leading me to fear Israel might go nuts and start launching nukes: something even the US had considered Israel might do, according to a leaked document. However, the report said: “We (US) have not observed indications that Israel intends to use a nuclear weapon”. It seems that cooler heads are prevailing… for now.
It’s more than likely that Israel will focus on desperately replenishing its arsenal and ensuring its iron dome is fully stocked. Iran will race forward with its nuclear plans, knowing a pre-emptive strike from the lunatics in Israel can’t be ruled out. It will probably focus on moving as much of its inventory underground as possible and bolstering its air defences. It looks like Iran is working on a deal with Russia to do exactly that. Does all this mean we are set for war maybe two or three years from now? Or will both sides finally make the calculation that war is simply too risky and only a diplomatic solution can work? Given that Israel is on a Biblical mission and the military industrial complex depends on endless war, I’m not overly optimistic…
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