Earlier this week, intelligence officials briefed congressional leaders known as the Gang of Eight regarding the movements and buildup of equipment by the Wagner group near Russia.
Both US and Western intelligence officials observed indications that Prigozhin was taking steps to prepare for such a move, including the accumulation of weapons and ammunition, as stated by a Western intelligence official and another individual familiar with the intelligence to CNN.
A source familiar with the intelligence emphasized that the developments unfolded rapidly, making it challenging to gauge the seriousness of Prigozhin’s threat to the Russian military and where his troops might be deployed.
“It all happened very quickly,” the official said, and it was “difficult to discern how serious Prigozhin was about threatening the Russian military and where he would take his troops,” according to the CNN report.
Nonetheless, it was all-hands-on-deck for U.S. and NATO leaders as of the Wagner rebellion starting on Friday night.
In the hours leading up to the Wagner retreat, U.S. officials held multiple interagency meetings on Friday night and Saturday morning to assess the potential impact, according to Politico’s sources. They tentatively agreed that the insurrection by the Wagner mercenary group would divert the Kremlin’s attention, presenting Ukraine with a crucial opportunity to reverse the tide of their faltering counteroffensive.
At that point, the Biden administration had not yet formulated a formal assessment, and officials cautioned that it was too early to draw definitive conclusions, the report claimed.
These officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the magnitude of the challenge posed to Vladimir Putin in over two decades, stated that they were monitoring the movements of Wagner forces as they advanced toward Moscow, passing through Rostov and heading northward.
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris received briefings on Saturday from Cabinet-level officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, national security adviser Jake Sullivan, and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, regarding the advances made by the Wagner Group before Prigozhin’s decision to stand down.
General Mark Milley, Chair of the Joint Chiefs, held a conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart, General Valery Zaluzhnyy, on Saturday. According to the conversation’s summary, Zaluzhnyy informed Milley about the offensive actions of their units and assured him that the operation was proceeding as planned.
Biden also discussed the situation in Russia with President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of the United Kingdom on Saturday.
Furthermore, Blinken had a conversation with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. In a tweet on Saturday, Kuleba stated, “Ukraine remains focused on achieving the goals of its counteroffensive within its territory with the unwavering support of our American allies.”
Later on Saturday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin planned to speak with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
A U.S. official revealed that phone calls with European counterparts aimed to “reassure them” and emphasize the importance of maintaining a neutral stance. “No one should be celebrating prematurely,” the official added.
In these conversations, there was a general consensus between the United States and its European allies that Kyiv now had an unprecedented opportunity to advance while a significant mercenary force shifted its focus from holding Ukrainian positions to launching attacks inside Russia.
Biden’s departure for Camp David, where he would have access to resources to monitor the developing situation, was delayed until early Saturday afternoon.
Even if Putin were to quell the rebellion, it could strain the resources of the Russian military and likely eliminate the Wagner Group’s effectiveness on the front lines, where it had previously proven successful against Ukrainian forces.
“The cracks in the Putin regime are now unmistakably visible. The Kremlin will have to forcefully suppress the Prigozhin rebellion to protect its legitimacy,” warned Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington.
NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu stated that the military alliance was closely monitoring the situation. However, an early complication arose when Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey and a NATO ally, pledged his “full support” to Putin during a phone call on Saturday.
Nevertheless, the open rebellion and the ease with which Wagner seized control of the military command center in Rostov, where the Kremlin directed its war on Ukraine, exposed the vulnerability of Russia’s military.
Officials cautioned that predicting events in the coming hours and days was challenging, as evidenced by the Lukashenko-brokered arrangement. Possibilities ranged from Putin swiftly suppressing the insurrection to his grip on power slipping, as the image of his total control over Russia was greatly diminished.
Russian state media reported President Vladimir Putin’s concessions to rebel mercenary leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin in order to halt his advance on Moscow and avoid unnecessary bloodshed.
“According to Russian State Media, Major Changes to the Leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense including changes to the current Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu and Army Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov have reportedly been Agreed upon in order to Stop the March of the Wagner PMC Group towards the Capital of Moscow; these Negotiations have also reportedly included the assured ‘Security of the Wagner Group’,” OSINT defender reported.
“These Negotiations are also reported to have included a ‘Stipulation’ that the Majority of Wagner PMC Forces will be Redeployed out of Russia and Ukraine to Africa,” he added.
Thus, it appears that the rebel Prigozhin would nonetheless accomplish the objectives of his Russian incursion, regardless of the retreat.
While current U.S. officials believe Putin will retain his leadership, there is quiet concern within the administration that the Russian leader may resort to catastrophic options if he were cornered into a desperate situation.
No one in the White House would mourn Putin’s absence, but there is no evidence to suggest that Prigozhin, or someone aligned with him, would be any less dangerous. Any form of turmoil or coup in a country possessing the world’s largest nuclear arsenal would be a cause for grave concern, officials warned.
“This kind of instability is dangerous, regardless of the outcome,” a U.S. official cautioned.
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