Het overheidstekort in de Verenigde Staten loopt de komende jaren sterker op dan eerder gedacht. Dat maakte het Witte Huis dinsdag bekend.
Biljoenen tekort
Het totale tekort van de Amerikaanse overheid loopt tussen 2010 en 2019 op tot 9 biljoen dollar, zo blijkt uit het nieuwe tussentijdse overzicht van de stand van de overheidsfinanciën.
Dat is 2 biljoen dollar meer dan het Witte Huis in mei nog voorspelde. Dit jaar valt het tekort met 1,58 biljoen dollar nog wel 250 miljard dollar lager uit dan eerder gedacht.
Werkloosheid
De werkloosheid in de VS stijgt volgens de nieuwe voorspellingen in het laatste kwartaal van dit jaar tot meer dan 10 procent van de beroepsbevolking.
Voor volgend jaar wordt een gemiddelde werkloosheid van 9,8 procent voorspeld. Momenteel zit 9,4 procent van de Amerikaanse beroepsbevolking zonder werk.
Hoopvol
De commissie die het rapport samenstelde, toonde zich wel hoopvol over het herstel van de Amerikaanse economie in de komende twee jaar.
Na een krimp van 2,8 procent in 2009, voorzien zij voor 2010 en 2011 een groei van respectievelijk 2 en 3,8 procent.
http://www.dag.nl/buitenland/tekort-vs-loopt-sterker-gedacht-304451
Amerikaans tekort loopt verder op
(ANP, Reuters)
WASHINGTON, 17 okt. - Het tekort van de Amerikaanse overheid is in het afgelopen jaar opgelopen tot de recordhoogte van ruim 1,4 biljoen dollar (ongeveer 950 miljard euro). Dat maakte de Amerikaanse regering gisteren bekend. Daarmee kwam het tekort 162 miljard dollar lager uit dan het Witte Huis in augustus had voorspeld. Het is nog altijd gelijk aan bijna 11 procent van het bruto binnenlands product (bbp), de som van alle in de Verenigde Staten geproduceerde goederen en diensten.
America's Total Debt Report - page 1
$ 57 Trillion - - and soaring
- household, business, financial and government sectors -
by Michael Hodges - email
updated May 2009
- a chapter of the Grandfather Economic Reports -
America has become more debt-dependent - - than ever before
with total debt of $57 trillion, or $186,717 per man, woman and child
and each added dollar of new debt produces less increased national income
I am concerned about the debt being passed to our younger generation. Who isn't?
The Grandfather Economic Reports (http://mwhodges.home.att.net/) is a series of picture reports of threats to the economic future of families and their children, compared to prior generations. You may have read the summary page of America's Total Debt trends. This page is page 1 of the full report of this America Debt Report chapter. Welcome. We hope your visit will find useful information to help you and your loved ones.
You may have previously viewed the historic pictures in the Federal Government Debt Report, which covers just the federal govt. debt of $10.2 Trillion, or $33,468 per person FY2008. This chapter covers all U.S. debt, called America's Total Debt (defined as the sum of all recognized debt of federal, state & local governments, international, private households, business and domestic financial sectors, including federal debt to trust funds - but excludes the huge contingent liabilities of social security, government pensions, Medicare and other government off-budget items).
America Debt Total is now $57 Trillion. This page tells the story with 11 pictures.
BIG PICTURE - - DEBT RATIOS - - DEBT PER PERSON - - EXCESS DEBT
DIMINISHED DEBT PRODUCTIVITY
MAJOR COMPONENTS of TOTAL DEBT REVEAL the CULPRITS
HOUSEHOLD DEBT - - DEBT SUMMARY TABLE
(graphics on household, business, financial sector, government and international debt from link bottom of page)
BIG PICTURE - $57 TRILLION IN DEBT, and rising rapidly
and this excludes contingent liabilities such as social security, government pensions and Medicare. The economy is 2-3 times more debt-dependent - with at least $36 Trillion DEBT EXCESS - - compared to the 1950-1970s
The next 2 charts will show: first the debt in current dollars 1957 vs. today, and then adjusted for inflation in 2008 dollars.
This chart compares total American debt today vs. 1957 in actual dollars.
Total American Debt is defined as all U.S. debt (federal and state & local governments, international, and private debt, incl. household, business and financial sector).
The chart shows the debt in 1957 was $693 billion (the left bar in the chart) - - or about $4,000 per capita
Today's debt has grown above $57 trillion (the right bar in the chart)- - 81 times higher - - to $186,717 per man, woman and child - or $746,868 per family of 4.
80% ($46 trillion) of today's debt was created since 1990.
Here's the representative chart you saw on the previous summary page. Which line goes up faster, the red debt line or the blue economy size line?
Lees verder: http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/debt-nat-a.htm
This is A SCARY CHART - showing 4 decade trends of America's total debt (the red line, reaching $57 trillion) vs. growth of the economy a measured by net national income (blue line), adjusted for inflation in today's dollars.
America's Total Debt is here defined as all U.S. debt (sum debt of federal and state & local governments, international, and private debt, incl. household, business and financial sector, including federal debt to trust funds).
Note from 1957 to the early 1970s each curve approximately doubled - meaning about the same ratio of debt was supporting national income growth, despite paying on old WW II debt and covering Korean and Vietnam wars.
Had the economy become less debt dependent after that we would have expected debt to slow down. But, instead, it took off.
In just the 1990s real debt increased more than two times faster than growth of the total economy - - despite zero cold wars.
Other charts show the driving culprits were not only federal government debt ratios (which stopped falling in early 1970s and reversed strongly to the upside - growing 2x the economy) - but, not to be left out, other main culprits were accelerating household debt (growing nearly twice the rate of the economy, and domestic financial sector debt growth (at rates 4 times faster than general economic growth).
This chart clearly shows the accelerating reliance on debt to drive economic growth in the past 2 decades, compared to prior periods.
DEBT RATIOS
America's Total Debt today restated as a percentage of the economy is twice that of 1957, when we were dealing with debt left over from World War II plus the Korean War.
This chart shows the above total (government + private) debt as a ratio to the size of the economy in 1957 vs. today - - with the size of the economy measured by national income.
If total debt in America had not grown faster than the economy then the two bars on the chart would be the same height. But they are not the same height, because the debt ratio to economy size in that period increased over two times faster than growth of the economy - - indicating more than a 100% increase in debt dependence - - as it jumped from 186% of national income to a 499% debt ratio.
Stated another way, if 2007 debt had been at the 1957 debt ratio then 2008's debt would have been $21 trillion, not $57 trillion - - indicating excess debt in America today of $36 trillion. (note - if this chart were plotted as debt % GDP, instead of debt % national income, the curve would look near identical to this chart)
Stated differently, in 1957 there was $1.86 in debt for each dollar of national income, but today there is $4.99 of debt for each dollar of national income. It also means that this extra $3.13 per dollar of debt produced zilch relative national income.This chart implies today's economy has 168% higher debt load in relation to economy size, as was the 1957 economy. Not only is this ratio difference very large, but the 1957 economy was still paying off World War II debt (and carrying parts of the Korean war). Restated - it took twice as much debt per dollar of national income in today as was required in 1957. There can be little doubt (from this chart) that our economy is significantly more debt-dependent than ever before - - and that the economy can have a major negative impact should interest rates rise significantly or the economy slow down.
The chart at the left looks at debt ratios to economy size for all in-between years: 1957 to now.
If the years after 1957 required no more debt per dollar of national income, then the black curve in the chart would have remained flat - at the 186% level. But, as the years went on, especially after the late 1960s, it took more debt each year than the year before to produce a dollar of national income.
By 2008 Total America debt reached a historic peace-time record at 499% of national income - - more than double the share of economy that was debt laden in 1957. This picture makes quite clear that today's economy is over 168% more debt dependent (leveraged) than before.
Restated - - in 1957 a dollar of debt produced 54 cents of national income; but today's dollar of debt only produced 20 cents of national income - or 63% less economic growth per added dollar of debt.
The black line is our data. The red dashed line is the exponential trend line. Note in the more recent years, not only has the black line increased at a faster rate, but it is now growing at a rate above the red exponential trend line.
(Note: this chart is a ratio of debt to national income per year, as recommended by Nobel Laureate Dr. Milton Friedman to use national income by its original definition as the economy size base instead of GDP. For those thinking in terms of GDP, the 2008 debt ratio to GDP was 395%, with nearly the same historic slope as this chart)
Lees verder: http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/debt-nat-a.htm
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