Grasping At Straws
Sunday, March 29, 2020
Today's Links
For $2 trillion, you could give $500 billion to frontline health care facilities and then cut a $10,000 check to every single worker in America. Please try to explain to me how this wouldnt be better than giving much of the emergency stimulus money to corporations.David Sirota
"US household balance sheets were already vulnerable before the virus..With 25% of US workers making less than $600 a week, how deep this recession will be depends importantly on how long time it will take before the stimulus money arrives into the hands of consumers:" DB's Slok
@lisaabramowicz1
Virus lockdowns have cut global oil consumptions by up to 25%. One investor predicts crude prices will fall below $20 a barrel within days.
@lisaabramowicz1
"It’s likely, then, that the new coronavirus will be a lingering part of American life for at least a year, if not much longer. If the current round of social-distancing measures works, the pandemic may ebb enough for things to return to a semblance of normalcy. Offices could fill and bars could bustle. Schools could reopen and friends could reunite. But as the status quo returns, so too will the virus. This doesn’t mean that society must be on continuous lockdown until 2022. But “we need to be prepared to do multiple periods of social distancing,” says Stephen Kissler of Harvard."Ed Yong
Analysts say it’s only a matter of time before households default on their loans in mass. “These issues in China are a preview of what we should expect throughout the world.”
1--China leads while US tightens sanctions and wages war
the US is no longer a country that the rest of the world wants to emulate
Faced with such a mega-crisis, the failure of the Trump administration to lead responsibly is proving extraordinarily destructive to the US position in the world.
The decline of the US is usually seen as the counterpart to the rise of China – and China has, at least for the moment, successfully got a grip on its own epidemic. It is the Chinese who are sending ventilators and medical teams to Italy and face masks to Africa. Italians note that the other EU states all ignored Italy’s desperate appeal for medical equipment and only China responded. A Chinese charity sent 300,000 face masks to Belgium in a container on which was written the slogan “Unity Makes Strength” in French, Flemish and Chinese
US failure goes far beyond Trump’s toxic political style: American supremacy in the world since the Second World War has been rooted in its unique capacity to get things done internationally by persuasion or by the threat or use of force. But the inability of Washington to respond adequately to Covid-19 shows that this is no longer the case and crystallises a perception that American competence is vanishing.
2--China's poverty eradication program?
Orderly work and production resumption in Hubei should be fostered under the premise of cemented containment efforts.
Then, there should be a set of customized policies to address fiscal and financial difficulties as well as supply chain problems, while supporting enterprises, workers and people's livelihoods in general...
Discussion on poverty eradication was another major topic of the meeting as the task is approaching its last stage.
The meeting acknowledged the accomplished work when commenting on the two reports. The statement said that the goal for poverty elimination in 2019 is completely achieved, and the practical experience has proved the correctness of the strategic plan on poverty eradication by the CPC Central Committee.
3--U. of Washington: Worst Will be Mid-April Death Peak
Here’s a fairly optimistic forecast from Prof. Christopher J.L. Murray of the University of Washington that if the lockdown intensifies, deaths will peak in mid-April and the worst will be over by June 1, assuming we stick with it, with total deaths nationally under 100k (at least in just the First Wave).
The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.
4--Italy Must Never Forget...Or Forgive
Reconfiguring the Global Order
On the other hand, China has been exemplary in aiding Italy and Europe as a whole. The white noise being produced by angry Washington neo-liberals and neo-conservatives, who claim China and Russia are using humanitarian aid as propaganda (as opposed to what?), is falling on deaf ears.
While Donald Trump bickers with selfish US capitalists to produce life-saving ventilators, Chinese planners for the last week have been busy ratcheting up production to meet the sudden explosion in demand in Italy and beyond. Chinese ventilator factories are now working 24 hours and 7 days a week in hopes of meeting superhuman manufacturing goals, even though this carries the risk of creating another outbreak.
This is only one piece of a bigger relief effort. Aside from tons of supplies, China has also sent Italy its most heroic doctors, many who originally helped contain the virus during the initial outbreak in Wuhan. The Chinese have demonstrated deep respect for Roman civilization, marking every humanitarian aid crate with a quote by Seneca: “We are waves of the same sea, leaves of the same tree, flowers of the same garden.” Various other countries targeted by Washington and its pawns in Brussels for rejecting some or all liberal tenets – Russia, Venezuela, Cuba – have also been generous with Italy, despite being strangled by sanctions themselves.
5--Donald Trump And The Fed Are Destroying The U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has taken a beating, however, dropping almost 4% against a basket of currencies this week—its biggest weekly loss since the height of the global financial crisis over 10 years ago
This week's losses come on the back of the dollar index's biggest weekly gain since the financial crisis, with the dollar surging as investors scrambled for the world’s most liquid currency amid crashing stock and debt markets.
"In short-term, huge dollar demand because short-covering, but it won't last," Wall Street veteran and founder of Wyoming-based crypto bank Avanti, Caitlin Long, said via Twitter, adding she expects the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet to top $10 trillion before the coronavirus crisis is over and predicting the dollar's eventual crash.
On top the of the massive economic aid package, the Fed has been working hard to prop up plunging markets—with mixed results despite its shock-and-awe firepower.
Potential risks of the combined cross-party rescue bill and Fed's biggest-ever bazooka include out-of-control inflation, the dollar's displacement as the world's funding currency, and the complete destabilization of the U.S. financial system.
The Fed has pumped over $1 trillion to the system in recent weeks, with its chair Jerome Powell promising never before seen levels of money printing and so-called quantitative easing to infinity through an unlimited bond-buying program.
"In short-term, huge dollar demand because short-covering, but it won't last," Wall Street veteran and founder of Wyoming-based crypto bank Avanti, Caitlin Long, said via Twitter, adding she expects the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet to top $10 trillion before the coronavirus crisis is over and predicting the dollar's eventual crash.
Potential risks of the combined cross-party rescue bill and Fed's biggest-ever bazooka include out-of-control inflation, the dollar's displacement as the world's funding currency, and the complete destabilization of the U.S. financial system.
The Fed has pumped over $1 trillion to the system in recent weeks, with its chair Jerome Powell promising never before seen levels of money printing and so-called quantitative easing to infinity through an unlimited bond-buying program.
The Fed has also cut its benchmark interest rate to near zero and made sure commercial banks will continue lending to companies, cities and states—all told the extraordinary measures are expected to grow the Fed's balance sheet by $4.5 trillion this year.
Throughout and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis the Fed grew its balance sheet by a paltry $3.7 trillion.
"The beautiful thing about our country is $6.2 trillion—because it is 2.2 plus four [combining the Fed's action and the cross-party rescue bill]—it’s $6.2 trillion, and we can handle that easily because of who we are, what we are," Trump said, speaking after the bill's historic White House signing ceremony, and boasting the package was "twice as large" as any prior relief bill.
The bill will see individuals and companies whose livelihoods and businesses have been affected by the coronavirus pandemic receive direct payments, with every American earning less than $75,000 per year picking up a one off payment of $1,200, as well as $500 per child.
"It’s our money; we are the ones, it’s our currency," Trump said.
Throughout and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis the Fed grew its balance sheet by a paltry $3.7 trillion.
"The beautiful thing about our country is $6.2 trillion—because it is 2.2 plus four [combining the Fed's action and the cross-party rescue bill]—it’s $6.2 trillion, and we can handle that easily because of who we are, what we are," Trump said, speaking after the bill's historic White House signing ceremony, and boasting the package was "twice as large" as any prior relief bill.
The bill will see individuals and companies whose livelihoods and businesses have been affected by the coronavirus pandemic receive direct payments, with every American earning less than $75,000 per year picking up a one off payment of $1,200, as well as $500 per child.
"It’s our money; we are the ones, it’s our currency," Trump said.
6--Russian sends doctors to Italy
— Russia's military planeloads of aid to Italy to combat the spread of coronavirus have exposed the European Union's failure to provide swift help to a member in crisis and handed President Vladimir Putin a publicity coup at home and abroad.
The Trump administration is reacting to the pandemic stress by lashing out at perceived internal and external enemies. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is leading the external onslaught.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has called for an "immediate global ceasefire" to focus on fighting Covid-19. He has appealed for the "waiving of sanctions that can undermine countries' capacity to respond to the pandemic."
But Washington is not listening.
Requests from Venezuela and Iran for emergency IMF loans to buy medical supplies were blocked by U.S. interventions.
Just a month ago Pompeo announced an increase of sanctions against Iran. The sanctions block money transfers. They make it impossible for Iran to import the medical equipment it urgently needs to counter the epidemic.
While the U.S. renewed the sanction waiver which allows Iraq to import electricity and gas from Iran the waiver is now limited to only 30 days. One third of Iraq's electricity depends on those imports from Iran and, if the waiver is not renewed, its hospitals will go dark just when the epidemic will reach its zenith.
Parts of the Trump administration are even pressing for a wider waragainst alleged Iranian proxy forces in Iraq:
The Pentagon has ordered military commanders to plan for an escalation of American combat in Iraq, issuing a directive last week to prepare a campaign to destroy an Iranian-backed militia group that has threatened more attacks against American troops....
It is not only Iraq and Iran the U.S. is aiming at. The U.S. State Department cut its contributions to health care in Yemen just in time of the highest need:
U.S. foreign policy during the crisis has been abysmal. The U.S. angered China, the biggest producer of urgently needed masks and drugs, by calling the virus "Wuhan virus" or "Chinese virus", a practice that stopped only after a phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping. It angered Germany when it tried to buy exclusive rights for a potential vaccine that is being developed there. Requests for support by multiple European allies were left unanswered while China and Russia mobilized to help over 80 countries. Meanwhile Pompeo chastised Italy for accepting Cuban drugs and doctors.
There will be a large cost to pay for this when the pandemic is over. The U.S. has exposed itself as unreliable ally, as war mongering moron that does not shrink from damaging its own best interest and as incapable of helping its own citizens.
China on the other hand has defeated the epidemic at home and now helps defeating it wherever it can. This is going to be its century.
Italy has been thankful for the Russian decontamination units and army medical staff sent over the past four days, contrasting it with a piecemeal response by EU states.
7--It Is A Time Of Crisis And U.S. Foreign Policy Is Becoming Unhinged
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has called for an "immediate global ceasefire" to focus on fighting Covid-19. He has appealed for the "waiving of sanctions that can undermine countries' capacity to respond to the pandemic."
But Washington is not listening.
Requests from Venezuela and Iran for emergency IMF loans to buy medical supplies were blocked by U.S. interventions.
Just a month ago Pompeo announced an increase of sanctions against Iran. The sanctions block money transfers. They make it impossible for Iran to import the medical equipment it urgently needs to counter the epidemic.
While the U.S. renewed the sanction waiver which allows Iraq to import electricity and gas from Iran the waiver is now limited to only 30 days. One third of Iraq's electricity depends on those imports from Iran and, if the waiver is not renewed, its hospitals will go dark just when the epidemic will reach its zenith.
Parts of the Trump administration are even pressing for a wider waragainst alleged Iranian proxy forces in Iraq:
The Pentagon has ordered military commanders to plan for an escalation of American combat in Iraq, issuing a directive last week to prepare a campaign to destroy an Iranian-backed militia group that has threatened more attacks against American troops....
Officials with the United States Agency for International Development said the decision to halt funding, reported earlier by The Washington Post, included exceptions for “critical, lifesaving activities, including treatment of malnutrition as well as water, sanitation and hygiene programs aimed at keeping people healthy and staving off disease.” But humanitarian officials said the agency’s exceptions did not provide for continued funding of basic health care programs, which are heavily reliant on foreign aid, and did not seem to take into account what might occur when the coronavirus begins to spread.Not happy with only messing up the Middle East the State Department also renewed its assault on Venezuela. On Thursday the Justice Department announced charges of 'Narco-Terrorism, Corruption, Drug Trafficking and Other Crimes' against President Nicolas Maduro and 14 former or current officials. It put up a $15 million reward for Maduro's arrest.
U.S. foreign policy during the crisis has been abysmal. The U.S. angered China, the biggest producer of urgently needed masks and drugs, by calling the virus "Wuhan virus" or "Chinese virus", a practice that stopped only after a phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping. It angered Germany when it tried to buy exclusive rights for a potential vaccine that is being developed there. Requests for support by multiple European allies were left unanswered while China and Russia mobilized to help over 80 countries. Meanwhile Pompeo chastised Italy for accepting Cuban drugs and doctors.
There will be a large cost to pay for this when the pandemic is over. The U.S. has exposed itself as unreliable ally, as war mongering moron that does not shrink from damaging its own best interest and as incapable of helping its own citizens.
China on the other hand has defeated the epidemic at home and now helps defeating it wherever it can. This is going to be its century.
8--Who lives and who dies??
The shortage of lifesaving ventilators is rapidly emerging as a central factor that will vastly increase the death toll from the coronavirus.
In Metro Detroit, which is emerging as a center of the pandemic in the US, Henry Ford Health System warned patients that “because of shortages,” those who are “extremely sick” may be “ineligible for ICU or ventilator care.” Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (a former health care executive) praised the letter yesterday, declaring that “what they put out is honest.”
Other health care systems are preparing even more horrific measures. The states of Washington and Alabama are activating statutes that would allow them to deny lifesaving care to the mentally disabled.
A lawsuit filed by the Alabama Disabilities Advocacy Program noted that the state’s emergency plan for ventilator rationing “specifically singles out and excludes certain people with intellectual disabilities from access to ventilators in the event of rationing… Hospitals are ordered to ‘not offer mechanical ventilator support for patients’ with ‘severe or profound mental retardation’… This policy also applies to children.”
In Metro Detroit, which is emerging as a center of the pandemic in the US, Henry Ford Health System warned patients that “because of shortages,” those who are “extremely sick” may be “ineligible for ICU or ventilator care.” Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (a former health care executive) praised the letter yesterday, declaring that “what they put out is honest.”
Other health care systems are preparing even more horrific measures. The states of Washington and Alabama are activating statutes that would allow them to deny lifesaving care to the mentally disabled.
A lawsuit filed by the Alabama Disabilities Advocacy Program noted that the state’s emergency plan for ventilator rationing “specifically singles out and excludes certain people with intellectual disabilities from access to ventilators in the event of rationing… Hospitals are ordered to ‘not offer mechanical ventilator support for patients’ with ‘severe or profound mental retardation’… This policy also applies to children.”
9--American scientists refute Wuhan as the novel coronavirus' origin
10--Putin--G 20
11--Global default wave?
12--How the pandemic will end
Rudderless, blindsided, lethargic, and uncoordinated, America has mishandled the COVID-19 crisis to a substantially worse degree than what every health expert I’ve spoken with had feared. “Much worse,” said Ron Klain, who coordinated the U.S. response to the West African Ebola outbreak in 2014. “Beyond any expectations we had,” said Lauren Sauer, who works on disaster preparedness at Johns Hopkins Medicine. “As an American, I’m horrified,” said Seth Berkley, who heads Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. “The U.S. may end up with the worst outbreak in the industrialized world.”...
Having fallen behind, it will be difficult—but not impossible—for the United States to catch up. To an extent, the near-term future is set because COVID-19 is a slow and long illness. People who were infected several days ago will only start showing symptoms now, even if they isolated themselves in the meantime. Some of those people will enter intensive-care units in early April.....
Italy and Spain offer grim warnings about the future. Hospitals are out of room, supplies, and staff. Unable to treat or save everyone, doctors have been forced into the unthinkable: rationing care to patients who are most likely to survive, while letting others die. The U.S. has fewer hospital beds per capita than Italy. A studyreleased by a team at Imperial College London concluded that if the pandemic is left unchecked, those beds will all be full by late April. By the end of June, for every available critical-care bed, there will be roughly 15 COVID-19 patients in need of one. By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans, notwithstanding those who will indirectly die as hospitals are unable to care for the usual slew of heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents. This is the worst-case scenario. To avert it, four things need to happen—and quickly....
The second is that the virus does what past flu pandemics have done: It burns through the world and leaves behind enough immune survivors that it eventually struggles to find viable hosts. This “herd immunity” scenario would be quick, and thus tempting. But it would also come at a terrible cost: SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible and fatal than the flu, and it would likely leave behind many millions of corpses and a trail of devastated health systems. The United Kingdom initially seemed to consider this herd-immunity strategy, before backtracking when models revealed the dire consequences. The U.S. now seems to be considering it too....
The third scenario is that the world plays a protracted game of whack-a-mole with the virus, stamping out outbreaks here and there until a vaccine can be produced. This is the best option, but also the longest and most complicated...
It’s likely, then, that the new coronavirus will be a lingering part of American life for at least a year, if not much longer. If the current round of social-distancing measures works, the pandemic may ebb enough for things to return to a semblance of normalcy. Offices could fill and bars could bustle. Schools could reopen and friends could reunite. But as the status quo returns, so too will the virus. This doesn’t mean that society must be on continuous lockdown until 2022. But “we need to be prepared to do multiple periods of social distancing,” says Stephen Kissler of Harvard.
The early indicators from China aren’t pretty. Overdue credit-card debt swelled last month by about 50% from a year earlier, according to executives at two banks who asked not to be named discussing internal figures. Qudian Inc., a Beijing-based online lender, said its delinquency ratio jumped to 20% in February from 13% at the end of last year. China Merchants Bank Co., one of the country’s biggest providers of consumer credit, said this month that it “pressed the pause button” on its credit-ca ..
The early indicators from China aren’t pretty. Overdue credit-card debt swelled last month by about 50% from a year earlier, according to executives at two banks who asked not to be named discussing internal figures. Qudian Inc., a Beijing-based online lender, said its delinquency ratio jumped to 20% in February from 13% at the end of last year. China Merchants Bank Co., one of the country’s biggest providers of consumer credit, said this month that it “pressed the pause button” on its credit-ca ..
A global consumer default wave is just getting started in China
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Today's links
Michigan consumer sentiment falls by the most since Oct. 2008. One data point after another hits new superlatives. The takeaway: this is an unprecedented disruption in the economy for its speed and depth. Economists are flying blind, as is the Fed in many ways.
Lisa Abramowicz
Trump's America First: America is winning huuuugely again! It is #1 in number of COVID-19 cases and at this rate of spread contagion it will have 50 million cases (and about 500K dead people) by the end of April! China is losing huuuugely as its official # of cases peaked at 80K!
Nouriel Roubini
The policy news (monetary/fiscal bazooka) are priced in while the virus spread & macro news will surprise 2 the downside. A new fiscal stimulus may pass only as a result of worse macro/virus news; so it will not trigger a market rally. So the bear market is likely 2 worsen ahead!
Nouriel Roubini
At a rate of increase of 20% per day (as for the last week), the US cases of COVID-19 will be over 50 million by the end of April. Even with a mortality rate of 1% only that will imply 500,000 dead people by that time. This will the Easter gift of Trump to America
Nouriel Roubini
1--Are the Nevada & Michigan Governors and President of France in the Pay of Big-Pharma?
This question is invited by news reports that they are preventing the use of the anti-malaria drugs chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat coronavirus patients. According to experts, the anti-malaria drugs are effective if used early enough in the infection. But the drugs are cheap and there is no profit in them.
As of Tuesday, New York hospitals have federal permission to give desperately ill patients a cocktail of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin on a “compassionate care” basis.
According to the world’s leading expert, Didier Raoult, it is too late to give the anti-malarial drugs in the latter stage of the infection: https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/03/27/coronavirus-profiteers-are-worse-than-war-profiteers/
Fauci says there is no substantive proof that the drugs are effective, but the Chinese and Didier Raoult, who is far more prominant than Fauci, say otherwise.
2-- Commander Opposes Secret Pentagon Plan to Wipe Out Iraqi Militia General: Attack would divert resources, risks starting a war with Iran
The Pentagon has issued a secret directive, as of last week, calling on the military commanders in Iraq to plan a massive campaign against Iraqi Shi’ite militias, with an eye toward totally wiping one or more of the factions out.
The offensive is being advocated by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who believes they can destroy Iran’s proxies while the country is distracted by the coronavirus pandemic. Some commanders, particularly Lt. Gen. Robert White, are opposing the idea.
The general warns that the new campaign would take thousands more US troops, divert resources from existing missions, and risk blowing up into a full-scale war with Iran. Escalating a war with Iran, however, probably isn’t going to deter Pompeo from advocating the effort.
It isn’t clear if Trump has signed off on the offensive yet, but he did allow the planning to continue, and advocates are likely to believe they can go from planning to engagement without too many serious obstacles.
3--The Downgrade Massacre Has Started
Just astounding. So many downgrades in just of a couple of days. And zero upgrades.
So far this year, Moody’s issued over 180 downgrades, of which 20 hit investment-grade companies and 160 hit junk-rated companies. That ratio of investment grade to junk is roughly confirmed in the lists above.
S&P got even busier. Its downgrades hit over 300 companies so far this year, and it has upgraded only 75 companies. But those upgrades have stopped. In March alone, S&P downgraded about 200 companies, and just today, it downgraded 27! These analysts are now working as hard as they can to catch up.4--US military ordered to plan for major escalation with Iran in Iraq: report
The primary culprits behind this potential military escalation are top officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Robert C. O’Brien, the national security adviser.
Both O’Brien and Pompeo have sought to intensify the U.S.’ campaign against the Iranian government, despite the coronavirus pandemic that has killed thousands of people worldwide, including nearly 3,000 people in Iran.
5--Heroes And Villains: Mainstream Media And Western Establishment Against Medical Aid From Cuba, China And Russia
6--Miracle Cure?? Putin Says Russia May Defeat Coronavirus in Less Than Three Months
The Russian Federal Medical-Biological Agency (FMBA) said in a statement that it has presented a drug to treat the coronavirus, which has affected almost every corner of the globe.
Russia's FMBA is working "on an effective and safe scheme to prevent the coronavirus infection on the basis of mefloquine, which will not only overcome the peak of incidence but also effectively control it in the future", their press service said.
On 26 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin shared his views on what Russia needs to do to contain the virus.
"My colleague expects we will defeat the coronavirus in two or three months. This is a fine forecast, since in many countries people say the war will be going on for a very long period of time ... We will certainly get over this situation, and I hope even earlier than you have said [two or three months]”, Putin said at a meeting with Russian business persons on 26 March.
Russian Scientists Successfully Sequence Full Genome of Coronavirus
A week ago, the Russian Health Ministry's press service said that Russian scientists had succeeded in sequencing the full genome of COVID-19 that will help develop a vaccine and the necessary drugs.According to the ministry, the sequenced COVID-19 genome will help develop vaccines and antiviral drugs to treat the infection.
7--Putin’s approval rating rises after address to Russian nation due to COVID-19
. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center has published a poll on Friday, which informs that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval and trust ratings have risen on the outcomes of his address to the Russian nation on Wednesday. In the address, Putin outlined measures aimed to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and several economic solutions to the difficult situation in the country due to the outbreak of the disease.
"On March 25, 2020, Vladimir Putin addressed Russian citizens over the situation associated with the coronavirus pandemic. The president’s approval rating has risen on that day compared to last week, reaching 63.5%. The president’s trust rating has also risen, reaching 69%," the poll says.
In the period from March 16 to March 22, Putin’s average approval rating stood at 60.3%, while his trust rating came up to 67%.
8--Russia has called for urgent removal of US sanctions against Iran,
Russia has called for urgent removal of US sanctions against Iran, arguing that the bans have led to the flare-up of the COVID-19 outbreak in the country.
“The serious situation in Iran regarding the coronavirus is largely a manufactured situation stemming from Washington’s unilateral sanctions,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Friday.
Zakharova said the “unprecedented political and economic pressure” on Iran allowed the outbreak to take hold in the country.
Iran is unable to buy medicine and medical equipment due to the US economic sanctions which the Trump administration has been continuously tightening as part of “maximum pressure” on Tehran.
The coronavirus outbreak has prompted various international leaders, figures and groups to call for Washington to suspend its sanctions
9--Pompeo pushes escalation in Iraq
American officials said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Robert C. O’Brien, the national security adviser, have been pushing for an aggressive action against Iraqi resistance groups, while Pentagon chief Mark T. Esper and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have been wary of a sharp military escalation....
US army lieutenant general Robert P. White had written a memorandum warning about the costs and risks of any such attack, saying it could be "bloody and counterproductive."
They added that General White had also cautioned that a new military action would require thousands more American troops be deployed to Iraq and divert resources from existing missions there.
The officials further said the memo had pointed out that a possible Iraq campaign might run afoul of the current agreement with the Baghdad government that allows American troops to operate in the country.
10-- US continues to block Iranian assets needed to buy medical equipment to fight COVID-19: Foreign Ministry official
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on March 7 lashed out at US President Donald Trump for tightening "illegal" sanctions against Iran, saying such a move is aimed at draining the Islamic Republic's resources required in the fight against the novel coronavirus.
The efforts of some countries have led to the release of some of the Iranian central bank's money," a source told London-based Middle East Eye news outlet on Friday.
"Those countries will receive a sanctions waiver [for releasing Iran's frozen assets], this has been granted and we are following this issue," the source added.
11--Scott Ritter nails it--The US model of capitalism is forever broken
The coronavirus pandemic has exposed some uncomfortable truths about the state of America today. First and foremost is the fragility of the American economy. After years of outsourcing manufacturing, the United States has constructed an economy where services industries comprise some 55 percent of overall economic activity. In the age of globalization, with interconnectivity functioning seamlessly, this model has been able to generate the appearance of prosperity, with a booming stock market and increased GDP.
American corporations have been shown to have little capacity to plan for “rainy day” contingencies, instead focusing all their economic resources on the generation of short-term profit. And the American working class has been likewise exposed as living on the edge of catastrophe, with few Americans able to fall back on savings that would enable them to ride out a period of sustained economic inactivity or, worse, to pay for emergency health care.
The other uncomfortable truth about America that has been exposed by the crisis is the overall fragility of American society. The medical emergency brought about by the need to treat this virus has shown that what passes for a national healthcare system is, in fact, a fragile construct of for-profit institutions susceptible to being rapidly overburdened and unable to function once the cash-stream of overpriced healthcare has been cut off. The coronavirus crisis has revealed the reality of the US healthcare system today – most Americans don’t have the wherewithal to get quality healthcare when needed – the cost of such care is prohibitive, as are the insurance premiums one must pay to cover it.
Trump’s best-case scenario is that he can jump start the US economy, bringing it back up on all cylinders to resume where it had left off prior to the coronavirus-inspired shut down. Even if this plan worked, however, it would not resolve the underlying deficiencies in the US economic and social model that have been exposed as a result of the crisis.
The other alternative is to recognize the reality of the situation confronting the US today – that the crisis has fundamentally broken the American economy along with the American model of society which drove and sustained it. To fix the innumerable flaws and issues that have been identified by Covid-19 will require a level of government economic intervention over time that will forever tip America away from the vision of capitalism-inspired prosperity it aspired to, toward a more egalitarian form of socialism founded on the European model so many Americans claim to disdain.
Trump, the quintessential capitalist, recognizes this reality. He knows that the decision on whether to restart the American economy is much more than a question of simple economics. It is one which touches on the existential survival of America as we have come to know it.
12--Democrats unite with Trump to enact massive corporate bailout
The biggest single slice of the bill, $454 billion to finance guaranteed loans to big corporations, is designed to be leveraged by the Federal Reserve Board into some $4.5 trillion in loans and subsidies.
This amounts to a virtually unlimited backstop for the country's corporate and financial aristocracy, with no real strings attached. The provisions that provide stop-gap assistance to workers who are being laid off in the millions or being ordered to work without any protection against the deadly virus are designed to head off an eruption of class conflict in the short-term, so that the ruling class can buy time and prepare a counteroffensive to place the full cost of the corporate bailout on the backs of the working class. The bill's passage coincides with Trump's push to “open up” the country and force workers back into the plants and workplaces to resume pumping out profits for big business....The vast bulk of the bill is a massive handout to business, with most of the money by far going to big corporations. In addition to the $454 billion Treasury backstop for Fed loans and grants to corporations, the bill provides $46 billion in targeted loans from the Treasury Department, mainly to the commercial airline industry, with $17 billion carved out for Boeing.
It sets aside $350 billion in loans and aid to small businesses, which are defined as enterprises with up to 500 employees. This could include multi-billion-dollar hedge funds and other financial firms.
There is also $50 billion for an “employee retention tax credit” to companies that keep their employees on the payroll.
The bill sets the precedent for the unlimited plundering of social resources to prop up the corporate oligarchy, while providing entirely inadequate assistance to working people devastated by the health and economic impact of a pandemic that could have been either minimized or stopped in its tracks. Multiple advance warnings by health experts were ignored, no preparations for such a crisis were made, and the virus was not taken seriously by the government when it erupted in China.
The bipartisan bill does nothing to mobilize the immense power of technology and industry in a planned and coordinated manner to quickly produce and distribute the ventilators, masks and PPE material needed to save lives, and to construct the ICU units and hospitals and train the staff needed to prevent the health care system from being completely inundated.
It does not provide for the mass testing, contact tracing and extended social distancing needed to contain and defeat the disease. Nor does it order the shutdown of all workplaces and factories not providing essential services, with no loss in income for the workers, and safe conditions under medical supervision for those required to work.
13--European Union summit on coronavirus ends in acrimony
The struggle against the coronavirus crisis, the deepest crisis since the end of the Second World War, requires an international response that unconditionally prioritises human life and social need over capitalist private profit. The latest EU summit confirmed that the EU is utterly incapable of doing this.
The EU and its institutions do not embody European unity. Rather, they represent European big business and the banks, which plunder the working class and defend their profit interests. Under conditions of deep crisis, this inevitably leads to nationalist divisions and the flareup of chauvinism. That was the case during the financial crisis and it is reemerging once again in a more advanced form.
14--COVID-19 pandemic spells no truce in US imperialism’s global aggression
In the face of appeals from both the United Nations and nominal allies in Western Europe for a lifting of punitive unilateral US sanctions, Washington has instead doubled down on its attempts to destroy the economies of Iran and Venezuela. The explicit purpose of its sanctions regimes is to inflict a sufficiently high degree of mass suffering as to force the downfall of the two countries’ governments. The pandemic is seen by Washington as a means of furthering this objective.
The Trump administration imposed yet another round of sanctions against Iran on Thursday, targeting companies and individuals involved in the construction and shipping industries. Washington alleged there were links between them and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the Iranian armed forces that controls significant sections of the country’s economy....
Washington has defied the withdrawal demand, even as it has been compelled to withdraw US troops from smaller bases in Iraq, consolidating its occupation forces at larger, more defensible sites. Iraqi officials stated this week that the Pentagon has already begun bringing in Patriot missile systems, again in defiance of the Iraqi government, which fears that they will be used in preparation for an all-out US war against Iran.
The latest sanctions follow by barely one week a previous set of punitive measures aimed at escalating the so-called maximum pressure campaign Washington has carried out against Iran since the Trump administration unilaterally abrogated the nuclear agreement between the major powers and Tehran in 2018. This was followed a year later by a steady buildup of US military forces in the Persian Gulf....
In announcing the new sanctions on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin repeated the US administration’s cynical lie that Washington was providing “exceptions and authorizations for humanitarian aid... to help the people of Iran combat the coronavirus.” In reality, by designating Iran’s central bank as a sanctioned “terrorist entity,” the US sanctions regime has made it impossible for Iran to purchase desperately needed drugs and supplies on the world market.
Only two days before the announcement of the new Iranian sanctions, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human rights called for all sanctions imposed on countries to be “urgently re-evaluated.”
“In a context of global pandemic, impeding medical efforts in one country heightens the risk for all of us,” said the commissioner, Michelle Bachelet. She added that “humanitarian exemptions to sanctions measures should be given broad and practical effect, with prompt, flexible authorization for essential medical equipment and supplies.”
Washington’s murderous response to this appeal was demonstrated not only by the anti-Iran sanctions announced on Thursday, but also with a further attack on Venezuela announced by the US Justice Department on the same day in the form of a grotesque set of indictments branding every senior official in Caracas as a drug dealer and placing multi-million-dollar bounties on their heads.
Already subject to a US economic embargo tantamount to a state of war, Venezuela has seen its economy collapse even further as oil prices have plummeted....
The Trump administration has pursued a viciously anti-Chinese propaganda campaign over the coronavirus, preventing this week’s Group of 7 ministers meeting from issuing a joint statement because of thuggish US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s insistence that it describe the pandemic as the “Wuhan virus.”
Its authors, Kurt Campbell, former US assistant secretary of state for East Asia, and Rush Doshi, director of the Brookings Institution’s China Strategy Initiative, warn:
“As Washington falters, Beijing is moving quickly and adeptly to take advantage of the opening created by US mistakes, filling the vacuum to position itself as the global leader in pandemic response... Beijing understands that if it is seen as leading, and Washington is seen as unable or unwilling to do so, this perception could fundamentally alter the United States’ position in global politics and the contest for leadership in the twenty-first century.”
US imperialism’s response to this perceived threat is a resort to military force. Even as humanity faces the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, imperialism is preparing far greater horrors in the form of a new world war.
15--A screeching halt
The coronavirus crisis is bringing the United States economy to a screeching halt, with every sector feeling the effects of most of the country’s workforce staying home.
Satellite imagery combined with other photographic evidence and alternative data sources give a stark look at the U.S. situation: Airplanes are parked on unused runways, the busiest highways are empty during rush hour times, resorts have become ghost towns, ports are seeing sharp drops in shipping activity and more.
The U.S. now has more coronavirus cases than any other nation in the world, as Johns Hopkins University data shows 104,837 cases in the States. Transportation, hospitality and other service industries were the first hit as both leisure and business travel is now limited to what is considered essential.
16--This chart reflects the panic investors have felt amid recent weeks’ turmoil
Investors have poured money into money-market funds at a breakneck pace17--Food shortages ahead
Strawberries and asparagus are already being left to rot in Spain, Italy, and southern France. Farther north, producers of everything from salad greens and tomatoes to onions and peas are fretting about what to do as the spring and summer growing season picks up.
“The cities may soon start to lack fresh fruit and vegetables,” said Sebastien Heraud, a farmer in the Dordogne region of southwestern France and a leader of Coordination Rurale, an agricultural union. “Even those of us who can harvest have trouble selling.”
France expects some 200,000 workers will fail to show up this year. Coldiretti, an association of Italian farmers, estimates the country will be short as many as 100,000 foreign laborers. Germany typically has 30,000 migrant farm workers in March and 80,000 by May, but this year only a fraction of that number have shown up, according to Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner. On Thursday, the country closed its borders to migrant laborers from outside the European Union’s visa-free travel zone.
“The labor situation along the entire food supply chain is under immense strain,” Kloeckner told reporters in Berlin Thursday. “The number of workers from neighboring countries is falling fast.”
18--What to expect from the COVID-19 financial fallout
19--The next financial crisis: A collapse of the mortgage system
The mortgage finance system could collapse if the Fed doesn’t step in with emergency loans to offset a coming wave of missed payments from borrowers crippled by the coronavirus pandemic.
When individuals stop making payments on their home mortgages, the companies that handle the loans and process those payments, so-called mortgage servicers, are still on the hook: They're legally obligated to keep sending money to insurers and investors in mortgage-backed securities, the giant bundles of home loans that are packaged and sold on the securities markets.
Now industry executives and regulators are worried that Congress's generosity toward homeowners could wipe out those companies, causing investors not to get paid and potentially bankrupting the entire mortgage finance system — a domino effect that would make it much harder for borrowers to access credit to buy homes.
20--Russia presents Covid-19 TREATMENT based on existing anti-malaria drug
The Russian pharmacists also believe in the effectiveness of malaria medication against the virus, but suggested that another drug — Mefloquine — should be employed. They said their treatment was developed taking Chinese and French experience into account.
The drug, which has been around since the 1970s, blocks the degenerative effect Covid-19 has on cells and doesn’t allow the virus to replicate further, the Russian Federal Medical-Biological Agency (FMBA) said in a statement. They added that Mefloquine’s immuno-suppressive effect prevents the inflammatory response caused by the disease.
The Russian medics have been working on “an effective and safe scheme to prevent coronavirus infection on the basis of mefloquine, which not only would overcome the peak of incidence but would also effectively control it in the future,” the FMBA said.
Friday, March 27, 2020
Today's Links
Should Trump reopen the economy on Easter?
“I’d rather contain the epidemic first and then take my chances with the recession....Humans control recessions; mindless nature controls epidemics. It’s just bad medicine to mix epidemiology and economics right now.” Ralph Catalano, a professor of public health at the University of California at Berkeley.
So it’s not a $2 trillion bill, it’s closer to $6 trillion, and $4.3 trillion of it comes in the form of a bazooka aimed at CEOs and shareholders, with almost no conditions attached Dave Dayen
The present global health and economic calamity is without precedent. Whatever the outcome in the short term, social life and consciousness will never return to their previous states. A Rubicon has been crossed. The existing order, in the eyes of tens of millions, will be seen from now on as illegitimate and an immediate threat to their continued existence
Once again the naked drive for profit at any cost will provoke disgust and horror among artists, its underlying barbarism exposed for all those with eyes to see.,,,
A renewed interest in realism as an aesthetic approach, a more serious, committed engagement with life and with the life and fate of masses of people in particular, linked to more and more open political opposition to the status quo, must be an outcome. David Walsh
Uh oh....Yesterday, Fitch Ratings reaffirmed the US AAA credit rating but indicated that could change. It said that as a result of the $2 trillion stimulus package the federal fiscal deficit would rise to over 13 percent of GDP in 2020, compared to 4.6 percent in the 2019 fiscal year.
It forecast total government debt would increase to 115 percent of GDP by the end of 2020, putting it on course to “surpass a level Fitch has previously considered inconsistent with ‘AAA’ status.”
1-- G7 FM meeting row on virus exposes America's lack of leadership
As reported in the German newspaper Der Spiegel, as well as the Washington Post, the G7 Foreign Ministers Meeting on Wednesday, which includes the U.S, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, failed to produce a joint statement at the end of the meeting due to the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's insistence in having the COVID-19 formally described as the "Wuhan virus."
At the meeting via video conference due to the pandemic, Pompeo's counterparts refused to endorse the derogatory term which has been used by the American administration and others to publicly attack and shame Beijing over the virus.
Despite the lack of consensus over the naming, Pompeo came away from the meeting unilaterally claiming that the group discussed "Chinese misinformation."...
This time, Mike Pompeo has sought to use the meeting to push an all-embracing narrative accusing Beijing of the global COVID-19 pandemic, something the state department continues to be aggressive about. However, this appears to have backfired. Other countries went into the meeting not to vent anger at Beijing, but to discuss urgently needed international cooperation and a blueprint to fight the virus.
2--The financial crisis and Great Depression took three years to play out, this crisis has taken three weeks. The Greater Depression beckons
The shock to the global economy from Covid-19 has been faster and more severe than the 2008 global financial crisisand even the Great Depression. In those two previous episodes, stock markets collapsed by 50% or more, credit markets froze up, massive bankruptcies followed, unemployment rates soared above 10% and GDP contracted at an annualised rate of 10% or more. But all of this took around three years to play out. In the current crisis, similarly dire macroeconomic and financial outcomes have materialised in three weeks.
Earlier this month, it took only 15 days for the US stock market to plummet into bear territory (a 20% decline from its peak) – the fastest such decline ever. Now, markets are down 35%, credit markets have seized up and credit spreads (like those for junk bonds) have spiked to 2008 levels. Even mainstream financial firms such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley expect US GDP to fall by an annualised rate of 6% in the first quarter and by 24% to 30% in the second. The US Treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin, has warned that the unemployment rate could skyrocket to above 20% (twice the peak level during the financial crisis).
In other words, every component of aggregate demand – consumption, capital spending, exports – is in unprecedented freefall. While most self-serving commentators have been anticipating a V-shaped downturn – with output falling sharply for one quarter and then rapidly recovering the next – it should now be clear that the Covid-19 crisis is something else entirely. The contraction that is now under way looks to be neither V- nor U- nor L-shaped (a sharp downturn followed by stagnation). Rather, it looks like an I: a vertical line representing financial markets and the real economy plummeting.
3--Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931
Stocks surged for a third straight day Thursday as investors shrugged off the release of record-breaking initial jobless claims while the Senate passed a massive economic stimulus bill amid the coronavirus outbreak.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,351.62 points, or 6.4%, to close at 22,552.17. The Dow capped off its biggest three-day surge since 1931. Over the past three days, the Dow is up more than 20%.
4--Putin--The Rich must pay for the virus
all interest and dividend income that flows from Russia and is transferred abroad into offshore jurisdictions must be taxed properly.
Today, two thirds of these funds, and basically we are talking here about incomes of specific individuals, are taxed at the rate of only 2 percent, thanks to so-called optimization strategies of all kinds. At the same time, people with modest salaries pay an income tax of 13 percent. This is unfair, to say the least.For this reason, I suggest that those expatriating their income as dividends to foreign accounts should pay a 15 percent tax on these dividends. Of course, we will need to amend Russia’s double taxation treaties with some countries. I ask the Government to work this out. If our foreign partners do not accept our proposal, Russia will unilaterally withdraw from these treaties. We will begin with countries that attract substantial resources from Russia, which is a very sensitive issue for our country.
Second, many countries levy income tax on interest earned by individuals from their bank deposits and investments in securities, while Russia does not tax this income at all.
I propose that people with over 1 million rubles in bank deposits and debt securities pay a 13 percent tax on this income. I would like to reiterate that this is not about taxing the deposits themselves but only applying income tax to the interest individuals earn from these investments.
I would like to emphasise that only about one percent of deposit holders will be affected by this initiative. At the same time, Russian banks will still offer attractive deposits with some of the highest returns in the world.
The solutions I am proposing are far from simple. Still, I would like to ask you to treat them with understanding. Let me add that I propose using the budget revenue from these two measures to fund initiatives to support families with children and help people who are unemployed or on sick leave.
People of Russia,
All the measures that are about to be adopted or will be taken in the future will work and will produce results only if we are in it together and recognise the complexity of the current situation. We need the state, society and the people to work together, and we all have to do everything each and every one of us can do.
We have to be mindful that we bear personal responsibility for our close ones, for those who live near us, and who need our help and support. By and large, it is this sense of solidarity that underpins the resilience of our society, as well as an unwavering commitment to mutual assistance and the effectiveness of the response we come up with to overcome the challenge we are facing.
(We must protect the elderly, the veterans, the young families with children and the sick)
First, all social protection benefits that our citizens are entitled to, should be renewed automatically over the next six months, with no additional certificates or visits to the authorities needed. For example, if a family is entitled to subsidised housing and utility payments, they will not need to regularly confirm their per capita income to continue receiving this state support.Please note that all payments to war veterans and home-front workers timed to the 75th anniversary of the Great Victory, 75,000 and 50,000 rubles, respectively, should be made before the May holidays, earlier than usual, in April.
Second, it is essential to support families with children. In the next three months, starting in April, I propose paying all families that are eligible to maternity capital, an additional 5,000 rubles a month for each child up to three years of age.
This support is especially important for families with children who are not attending day-care nurseries or kindergartens, and for parents who are on sick leave or on maternity leave.
Regarding our new support package, I mean benefits for children aged 3 to 7, I now instruct the Government to expedite all organisational arrangements so that eligible families can start receiving these payments not in July, as planned, but a month earlier, in June. I also ask the governors to expedite the transfer of the necessary information from the regional civil registry offices to the tax service. Colleagues, it is fundamentally important to start making these payments. Pay attention to this.
Third, we need to support those on sick leave and people who have lost their jobs. Today, all sick leave payments are calculated based on employees’ period of work and salary.
5--Bernie Sanders: ‘If you’re a multimillionaire ... you’re going to get through’ the coronavirus pandemic
6--Credit Market Roundup
For the past month, bond traders confronted nothing short of chaos at every turn. U.S. Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds, leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations, it didn’t matter. Everything was for sale, and no one was willing — or, in many cases, able — to buy.
That relentless tide is starting to turn as March draws to a close. Thanks to a series of bold steps by the Federal Reserve, namely its promise to buy as many Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities as necessary, its unprecedented venture into the investment-grade credit market and its deeper expansion into municipal bonds, traditionally safe debt is showing signs of returning to more normal yields and spreads. Blue-chip companies feel comfortable borrowing again.
The amount of bonds and loans trading at distressed levels in the U.S. quadrupled in less than a week to almost $1 trillion, nearing the 2008 peak, Bloomberg News’s Katherine Doherty reported. Credit-rating companies are downgrading companies at the fastest pace in more than a decade, ushering in several large fallen angels like Ford Motor Co. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. Mortgage real estate investment trusts have been pummeled by margin calls from banks anxious that tenants won’t cover rent. As it stands, the Fed’s programs won’t backstop these parts of the market — probably for good reason.
Simply put, the bond market has bifurcated into winners and losers after this month’s mayhem. Here’s what the divide looks like:
Winner: U.S. Treasuries
Yes, the yield spread on the Bloomberg Barclays index of high-grade corporate bonds reached 373 basis points on Monday, the widest since 2009. But it’s looking increasingly like that’ll be the worst of it. That gap narrowed 20 basis points on Tuesday and then 29 basis points on Wednesday. A tightening of that magnitude has never happened since daily data began in 2000.Turning Point?
At first glance, junk bonds appear to be on a similar trajectory as their high-grade counterparts. Spreads on the Bloomberg Barclays high-yield index peaked at 1,100 basis points on Monday before tightening by 75 basis points over the next two days. On a relative basis, that’s still not nearly the same rebound.
Different Magnitude
Junk bonds are trading at an average spread that signals distressSource: Bloomberg Barclays
Loser: Leveraged loans, riskier CLOs
It’s mostly the same story, if not worse, in leveraged loans. The distressed trading level is defined as corporate bonds that yield at least 10 percentage points above Treasuries and loans that trade for less than 80 cents on the dollar. The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Price Index was hovering just above 76 cents at the beginning of the week. It increased on Wednesday for the first time since March 10 but remains firmly below that distressed threshold.Under Distress
Leveraged loan prices are collapsing as recession seems inevitableSource: Standard & Poor's
Loser: Private commercial MBS, mortgage REITs
As my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Matt Levine put it yesterday, “nobody wants a margin call right now.”Of course, that’s exactly what’s happening to mortgage real-estate investment trusts. As I wrote earlier this week, the REITs have plunged in price because banks are worried that closed tenants will miss rent, which will cause landlords to miss mortgage payments, which will wipe out the cash flow to commercial mortgage-backed securities. A Bloomberg Barclays index of “U.S. CMBS 2.0,” which is the market of conduit and fusion CMBS deals issued since January 2010, is down almost 11% this month, easily the biggest loss ever.
More likely, opportunistic investors saw muni ETFs trade at wider discounts to their net asset values than any other fund, and individual bond pickers noticed 10-year tax-exempt yields three times as high as taxable Treasuries, and determined it was too cheap to pass up.
In that sense, munis were a microcosm of the $100 trillion global bond market: Things got weird in a hurry. Central banks swiftly provided liquidity and gave investors a chance to breathe again. Now it’s time to sort through the wreckage.
7--Helicopter Money for Wall Street
Since mid-September when the Fed started bailing out the repo market that had blown out, total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet soared by $1.41 trillion. If the Fed had sent that $1.41 trillion to the 130 million households in the US, each household would have received $10,840. But that didn’t happen either. It was helicopter money for Wall Street.
8--Chloroquine has been effective in treating Covid-19 patients
Amid a pandemic panic over the coronavirus, evidence for a possibly effective treatment has been denounced as ‘fake news’ – even when offered by a renowned scientist with decades of experience.
Take Didier Raoult, a French microbiologist with undeniable expertise, even if some of his views are about as eccentric as his appearance. Though he may look like he just stepped out of an Alexandre Dumas novel, the director of the Mediterranean University Hospital Institute in Marseille cited not one but three different studies from China showing that the anti-malaria drug called chloroquine has been effective in treating Covid-19 patients9--New system of testing can identify those with immunity to COVID-19, says watchdog chief
The new test system will begin to be used as of next week
"The newly-devised system from Vector is capable of identifying the presence of antibodies. We will be able to say who is immune to the virus. In particular, this is crucial to identifying medical personnel who have developed immunity and can easily contact patients at work," Popova said.
10--Omar, Sanders, AOC, Warren, Pressley among lawmakers slamming US anti-Iran sanctions
“Rather than continue to pile on sanctions in the Iranian people’s hour of need, we urge you to substantially suspend sanctions on Iran in a humanitarian gesture to the Iranian people to better enable them to fight the virus,” read the letter. “Sanctions relief should encompass major sectors of the Iranian economy, including those impacting civilian industries, Iran’s banking sector and exports of oil, and should last for at least as long as health experts believe the crisis will continue. Failure to do so risks inhibiting the delivery of key humanitarian goods, and putting the Iranian people into further health and economic peril.”
The letter was signed amid global calls on Washington to put an end to the illegal sanctions.
Iran has confirmed 27,000 cases of coronavirus since the infection was spotted in the country on February 19
11--Stimulus Bill: “An Abomination Beyond Comprehension”
12--Krystal Ball implores AOC to KILL corporate robbery bill
13--Unsanitized: Bailouts, A Tradition Unlike Any Other
Twelve years later, virtually the same course of events is taking place. After just a couple weeks of extreme social distancing measures, the Treasury Department asked for a large bailout, this time of the entire corporate sector. The bill as written initially would have made all bailout activities secret for six months. Democrats balked, called it a slush fund and worse, and then agreed to a few mostly meaningless bits of oversight and some promises to help ordinary people. In fact they’re the same bits of oversight from the 2008 TARP bailout: a five-member oversight panel and an inspector general for the program.
The enormity of this bailout is being under-reported. The number you’re hearing is $500 billion. Of that, $75 billion goes to the airline industry and the mysteriously named “businesses critical to national security.” The other $425 helps capitalize a $4.25 trillion, with a T, leveraged lending facility at the Federal Reserve. The taxpayer dollars would soak up any losses from that lending program. The loans won’t be secret anymore, but the oversight is largely after the fact, without subpoena power, and mainly reduced to writing reports. How exactly do you expect a small, underfunded panel to find fraud in a $4.25 trillion lending facility! Especially when the current administration explicitly believes they are not required to turn over anything to Congress...
This is a robbery in progress. And it’s not a bailout for the coronavirus. It’s a bailout for twelve years of corporate irresponsibility that made these companies so fragile that a few weeks of disruption would destroy them. The short-termism and lack of capital reserves funneled record profits into a bathtub of cash for investors. That’s who’s being made whole, financiers and the small slice of the public that owns more than a trivial amount of stocks. In fact they’ve already been made whole; yesterday Wall Street got the word that they’d be saved and stocks and bonds went wild.
This is a rubber-stamp on an unequal system that has brought terrible hardship to the majority of America. The people get a $1,200 means-tested payment and a little wage insurance for four months. Corporations get a transformative amount of play money to sustain their system and wipe out the competition.
. And the result will almost certainly be massive concentration of power.
There’s also $150 billion for state and local governments and $130 billion for hospitals (though not much for actual equipment, it seems to fix certain existing problems with their businesses).
Progressives I’ve talked to on the Hill are apoplectic. “Temporary survival money for workers, trillions in permanent economic inequality saving a bunch of executives and elites,” said one House Democratic aide.
This bill is an outrageous betrayal, a testament to how power works and saves itself. And Congress is about to put itself on the hook for it.
14--"No Bid": In Stunning Development, Dealers Run Out Of Securities To Use In Fed Repo Operations
To be sure, having predicted this outcome, it is now obvious - if only in retrospect - to everyone: according to Bloomberg, "the lack of interest may stem from the fact that the central bank is buying $75b of Treasury securities a day."
Well, duh.
So what can the Fed do to unbreak the repo market? Why undo some of its massive QE!
"Why on Earth you would tie something up for three months in repo with the Fed buying," said Ian Burdette, managing director at Academy Securities, who followed up with a very apt observation:
"I think people are getting wise to the fact that an absolute tsunami of global sovereign debt issuance is on its way. Best to sell it all to the fed now probably.
15--UMich Consumer Sentiment Crashes Most Since Oct 2008
“Stabilizing confidence at its month’s end level will be difficult given surging unemployment and falling household incomes,’’ Curtin said.
“Mitigating the negative impacts on health and finances may curb rising pessimism, but it will not produce optimism.’’
16--If Russia and Saudi Arabia hold the line for nine months to a year, they can reassess and then sell oil for $80 per barrel with no competition from the United States shale.
In a rather revealing slide from the Dallas Fed survey, the average price that a driller needs to simply cover operating expenses (let alone earn a return) ranged from $23 in the Eagle Ford to $36 in “other” shale basins. In other words, with WTI currently trading below $25 per barrel, the “average” shale driller is not even covering the cost of keeping shale wells online.
- It is looking to be a bloodbath for most firms.”
- “I am shutting in everything I can and cutting general and administrative expenses to minimal levels to try and ride out the storm. Those who are in debt will not survive.”
- “I do not believe the energy industry, except with respect to the largest producers, has the capital liquidity and reserves to survive a price collapse of the depth and time extent that will be experienced.”
- “If Russia and Saudi Arabia hold the line for nine months to a year, they can reassess and then sell oil for $80 per barrel with no competition from the United States shale.
17--The center of the accelerating pandemic is the United States
It has now surpassed Italy and China with the largest number of confirmed cases, at more than 85,000. The US counted 17,000 new cases yesterday, almost three times that of any other country. The death toll has surged to nearly 1,300.
Amidst this escalating crisis, the Trump administration is intensifying its efforts to promote a speedy return to work.
“We have to get back to work,” Trump declared at his Thursday press conference. “Our people want to work, they want to go back, they have to go back… This is a country that was built on getting it done, and our people want to go back to work. I am hearing it loud and clear from everybody.”
In Trump’s imaginary world, “everybody” refers, first and foremost, to himself, and then to a slew of corporate executives who want to have workers back on the job and churning out profit, regardless of the impact on the public’s health.
There is a definite class logic to these demands. On Thursday, on the same day as a report showing new unemployment claims soared to 3.3. million, nearly five times more than the previous peaks in 1982 and 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by more than 6 percent. The US financial markets are up nearly 23 percent from their lows at the beginning of the week....
The “good job” that Wall Street is celebrating is the imminent passage, on an overwhelmingly bipartisan basis, of the grossly misnamed “CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security) Act.” Trump thanked Democrats and Republicans in the Senate “for unanimously passing the largest financial relief passage in American history.” Among those participating in this unanimous vote was Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders....
The most significant component of the $2 trillion bill is $425 billion from the US Treasury Department to back $4 trillion or more in asset purchases by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to more than double its current balance sheet to $10 trillion. These programs, announced over the past two weeks, include the purchase of bank assets as well as, for the first time ever, the direct buying up of corporate debt. The programs will be overseen by BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world.
In essence, Congress is giving the Federal Reserve the authority to provide unlimited sums of cash directly to the banks and giant corporations. In the final analysis, these payouts have to be paid for through the exploitation of labor and the extraction of profit. The ruling class intends to compel workers to return to work under unsafe conditions through economic blackmail and, if necessary, outright force. The police and the military stand ready to enforce labor discipline.
http://mikewhitneysgraspingatstraws.blogspot.com
