WILL TRUMP CUT A DEAL WITH IRAN?
Despite reports to the contrary, some in the Israeli leadership believe the president is considering paying off the Iranian government to open the Strait of Hormuz
America’s love affair with Israel has hit an astonishing bump because President Donald Trump, in a political panic over the economic fallout from the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is now “talking to Iran,” as an Israeli insider put it, about ending the current impasse in return for a payment from the United States of at least $25 billion, and possibly much more, to the government in Tehran. In return, Iran would end its blockade and open the strait to all traffic, ending a crisis for Trump, the US, and much of the world.
One motive for Trump’s extraordinary step—I was not told how or by whom Trump’s offer was communicated—may be personal. The president, I was told, “no longer trusts Israel. He now believes he was misled” by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the potential for success of the recent joint US-Israeli bombing attack, a goal of which was to trigger an overthrow of the religious leadership in Iran. The president is said not to share Israel’s existential concern about the need to destroy or neutralize the large depot of partially enriched uranium that is allegedly stored in at least three deep tunnels in Iran. Iran as a member of the world’s nuclear club may be an existential threat for the Israeli leadership, but not for the president of the United States.
“He wants out,” the Israeli insider told me, and the Israeli leadership “is very upset because Trump”—in his fear of the political cost to him of a continuing blockade of the strait “has shown a willingness to ignore Israeli interests and desires.” People in the Israeli leadership “say he’s lost it. He doesn’t think of the consequences. You cannot do negotiations with Iran because every step we make he immediately broadcasts it on his social media posts. He is so obtuse.”
One clear sign of Trump’s indecision came this morning when the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg published similar stories quoting Trump telling “his aides” to prepare for a lengthy US Navy blockade of the strait in an effort to compel cash-strapped Iraq to agree to giving up the nation’s stockpile of partially enriched uranium. The Journaldepicted the offer as demonstrating that Trump, “who always seeks a quick and salable victory, is devoid of a silver bullet.”
The Israeli insider told me that the reports accurately reflected the conflicting opinions inside the administration about how to resolve the crisis, given the widespread belief that the Iranian leadership, facing steep losses of income, will eventually have to give in to economic pressure.
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