I have a piece in where I argue that a new Israeli-Iranian war is coming - perhaps as early as the end of August.
This is mainly driven by Israel's desire to turn Iran into the next Syria or Lebanon - countries that Israel can bomb with impunity and without any US involvement.
In its first attack, Israel had three objectives - drag the US into the war, decapitate the regime, and subdue Iran to Israel's military dominance (Syria option) - but only achieved the first.
But having started this campaign, it feels that it now must finish it before Iran rebuilds or acquires better air defenses. Otherwise, the balance will shift against Israel. In addition, it calculates it must act before the US enters the midterm election season.
This, of course, is the outcome that Iranian leaders want to deter. It played the long game in the first war, pacing its missile attacks as it anticipated a protracted conflict. In the next round, however, Iran is likely to strike decisively from the outset, aiming to dispel any notion that it can be subdued under Israeli military dominance.
And then there is the Trump factor...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/11/isr
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