After weeks of fruitless talks, the Trump administration is increasingly suggesting that it will abandon its efforts to broker an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.
“It’s not our war,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday. “If it is not possible to end the war in Ukraine, we need to move on.” President Trump, Rubio added, could decide “in a matter of days whether or not this is doable.”
Given the extensive US role, it is disingenuous for Rubio to assert that a conflict that relies on US weaponry, intelligence, and planning is not “our war.” But the White House is clearly signaling that this era is coming to an end.
Just last week, Trump treated a Ukrainian request for Patriot air-defense missiles with open contempt. “You don’t start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles,” Trump said. According to the New York Times, European officials “have not even received assurances that the United States will continue its extensive intelligence sharing for Ukraine,” which was briefly paused after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s disastrous visit to the White House.
Meanwhile, according to Congressional sources, “[t]here is virtually no serious discussion underway” about a new weapons package for Ukraine after the current one, authorized in the Biden administration’s last months, runs out. A source close to several senior White House officials told me that the chance of a new military assistance package for Ukraine under the Republican-controlled Congress is “virtually zero.” Trump, the source said, “often changes his mind. He won’t on this one.”
In talks with Ukraine and NATO states, Trump officials have ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine and discussed recognizing Ukrainian territories now under Moscow’s control, including Crimea. While welcoming the White House’s overtures, Russia has greater ambitions. When Moscow speaks about addressing “root causes”, it has in mind not only Ukraine but also a far-reaching agreement that would roll back NATO military assets and long-range missiles near its borders. Yet Trump, who helped fuel Russian fears by abandoning the INF treaty during his first term, has shown no interest in undoing his own belligerent moves – just those he can pin on Joe Biden. Ukraine, Trump stressed last week, is “Biden’s war, not mine.”
Even if he were inclined to reach a broader agreement with Russia, Trump is also constrained by a divided cabinet. Aides including Rubio and Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg have advised Trump “to be more skeptical of Moscow’s desire for peace with Ukraine,” according to the Wall Street Journal. “We sometimes hear contradictory things from different parts of the administration,” a senior Western diplomat told Reuters. “That also adds to the sense that there is no real plan here.” A Russian opposition politician, Grigory Yavlinsky, voiced a similar concern. “The American administration has only the most general wishes of what it wants. There is no understanding of how exactly to achieve it.”
Now serving as the nation’s top diplomat, Rubio’s skepticism of a deal with Russia tracks with his career as a hawkish Senator. In 2020, Rubio served as co-chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee when it released a dubious report on alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 election. Expressing a longstanding bipartisan consensus, the report complained that the “Russia took advantage” of the first term Trump transition team and their “desire to deepen ties with Russia to pursue unofficial channels through which Russia could conduct diplomacy.”
During the final days of Trump’s first term, intelligence officials voiced a similar position. The Kremlin, a January 2021 National Intelligence Council report stated, “has long deemed that a weakened United States would be less likely to pursue assertive foreign and security policies abroad and more open to geopolitical bargains with Russia.” The message from the US national security apparatus was clear: any reduction in “assertive”, i.e. aggressive, policies – namely the proxy war in Ukraine, triggered by the 2014 Maidan coup, which ultimately led to the 2022 Russian invasion – along with any attempts for a “geopolitical bargain” with Russia, would weaken the United States.
Having long been guided by these hawkish forces in Washington, Zelensky is desperate for them to regain control. “I believe, sadly, Russian narratives are prevailing in the U.S.,” Zelensky recently complained to CBS News. “This speaks to the enormous influence of Russia’s information policy on America, on U.S. politics and U.S. politicians.” Reviving their spat at the White House, Zelensky singled out Vice President JD Vance, who he said is “somehow justifying Putin’s actions.” Zelensky also called out Trump envoy Steve Witkoff for arguing that a peace deal will come down to the status of Ukrainian regions claimed by Russia. “I think that Mr. Witkoff has taken the strategy of the Russian side,” Zelensky said. “I think it's really dangerous, because consciously or unconsciously he is disseminating Russian narratives.”
By lamenting the prevalence of “Russian narratives” in Washington, Zelensky in fact means a diplomatic settlement that addresses Russian concerns. Moscow will not get everything it wants out of Trump. But a speedier resolution is much more likely if Ukraine’s main sponsor can stick to its newfound position that a conflict it has fueled since 2014 is no longer “our war.”
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