NEW MARITIME PROVOCATION BY UKRAINE NEAR THE KERCH STRAIT
On 9 December 2021, Ukraine sent one of its warships to approach the Kerch Strait, in what looks like a bad replay of the 25 November 2018 provocation, when three Ukrainian ships crossed the Russian maritime border near Crimea.
Despite the lack of American willingness to go to bat for Kiev, it seems that Ukraine has decided to play with fire by attempting a new maritime provocation near the Kerch Strait.
After the attempt to force its way through the Kerch Strait on 25 November 2018, which resulted in the capture of the three Ukrainian ships involved, and then the provocation on 24 June 2021 carried out by a British warship, it seems that Ukraine wanted to try its luck again by sending one of its command ships, the “Donbass”, to approach the strait without first requesting permission to cross it.
Thus, the FSB reports that on 9 December 2021, at 09:12, the Ukrainian Navy command ship “Donbass” departed from the port of Mariupol and headed for the Kerch Strait, without any application being submitted by Ukraine for passage through it.
At 13:45, the escorting Russian FSB coastguard vessel warned the Ukrainian vessel of the need to comply with Russian legislation regarding the submission of an application for passage through the Kerch Strait. The “Donbass” replied that it was not intended to cross the Kerch Strait.
The Ukrainian vessel then approached within 18 nautical miles of the Kerch Strait, while refusing to comply with requests to change course, thus posing a threat to the safety of navigation in the area. For safety reasons, Russia then halted shipping traffic in the Kerch Strait until the Ukrainian provocation was over, blocking nearly 80 ships.
Map showing the location of the Ukrainian ship “Donbass”:
But it seems that either their plan was not to go as far as the three ships captured in 2018, or the sailors of the “Donbass” were not very keen to be shot at like their colleagues on the above-mentioned ships. In any case, the Ukrainian ship eventually turned around and returned to its home port, all the while refusing to respond to requests from the Russian Coast Guard vessels.
For many analysts, the purpose of the provocation near the Kerch Strait was to get the Russian coast guard to fire on the Ukrainian ship, thus giving Ukraine a good pretext for the war it so badly needs.
TV presenter Andrey Medvedev believes that if the ship had gone through the Kerch Strait, it could have been a pretext to start a war.
“Well, here it is, in fact, the provocation that everyone was waiting for. In view of the whole situation, in view of all the statements of the last few days, I dare to assume that the British comrades advised Zelensky to take extreme measures. Namely, to try to have the ship destroyed. So that there will be casualties and therefore a reaction from the West. Because this is the only chance to drag the Western countries into a war for Ukraine,” he said.
Political scientist Dmitry Yevstafyev predicted a Black Sea provocation a few days ago. He also believes that Ukrainian sailors were “inspired” by Britain’s failed “exploit” in June 2021.
“Kiev needs an explosion. A big explosion at any cost. To smear everyone. And I don’t think it’s the Americans who have validated it. It’s against the Americans. It’s the British. It’s their signature,” he wrote.
Disturbingly, this Ukrainian provocation took place during a telephone conversation between Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as during the vote on a UN resolution on the “militarisation of Crimea”. According to Ukrainian political scientist Kost Bondarenko, Ukraine deliberately chose the time of the discussion between the Ukrainian and US presidents to carry out its provocation near the Kerch Strait, to show the US how Kiev can act.
“I think the timing [of the incident with the ship] was deliberately chosen precisely during the negotiation process [between Zelensky and Biden], respectively, to show how we can act,” said Bondarenko, who believes the situation was really dangerous.
For Russian political scientist Andrey Suzdaltsev, the aim of the Ukrainian provocation in the area near the Kerch Strait was to “probing” the reactions of both the United States and Russia.
“They [the Ukrainian authorities – editor’s note] partially understood and partially knew the essence of the negotiations between the US and Russian presidents [of 7 December – editor’s note]. The direction of the ship, its approach to the Kerch Strait, where it could not pass, was a kind of survey. A survey not only of the Russian side, but also of the American side and how they will react,” said Suzdaltsev.
Suzdaltsev does not believe that Kiev intended to derail the US-Russia dialogue after the discussion between the leaders of the two countries earlier this week, but that Ukraine wanted to understand Washington’s and Moscow’s reactions simultaneously.
“I don’t think they intended to disrupt the dialogue that emerged from that conversation on 7 December between the US and Russian presidents. They really wanted to understand our reaction and the US reaction at the same time. But since neither the American side supported such a manoeuvre nor the Russian side gave in to the provocation, the ship turned around and left. This is a survey of the armed forces,” he says.
For the former commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, such provocations by Ukraine in the Black Sea, as in the Sea of Azov, will be repeated, as the aim is to provoke a military response from Russia.
“I think the Ukrainians will not stop there – they will stage provocations both from Mariupol and from Odessa. Yes, our Chief of General Staff has made it clear that we will respond to provocations with force, but this is apparently what Kiev wants, its main sponsor Washington is pushing it by all possible means,” Komoyedov said.
The admiral believes that these provocations by Ukraine must be stopped by force, especially as they are unlikely to escalate into a global conflict.
“Indeed, we must respond to such things with force. Of course, there will be casualties, which one would like to avoid, but I do not think that the situation will escalate into a global conflict. However, a regional war already seems inevitable to me, and it doesn’t matter whether Putin and Biden meet or not,” he concluded.
Whatever the reasons that pushed Ukraine to organise this new provocation near the Kerch Strait, one can only salute the coolness and patience shown by the Russians, thus avoiding the incident to degenerate.
Christelle Néant
