MOHAMMED ABED/AFP/Getty Images
Egyptian protesters confront riot police in Cairo on Jan. 28
Syria reportedly suspended Internet services Jan. 28. The suspension comes as demonstrations in Egypt continue, prompting Cairo to shut down Internet services to stop the flow of information and prevent protesters from mobilizing via social networking sites. The Syrian telecommunications minister has denied this disconnection.
Syria already had restricted Internet communication and cell phone services in the aftermath of Tunisian riots to prevent the spread of unrest. The current political uncertainty in Egypt is of much greater concern to the Syrian government than the unrest in Tunisia, due to both geographical proximity and historical similarity between the two countries. As demonstrations in Egypt attract wider international media attention, Damascus’ fears of a spillover effect in Syria have risen.
Given that ruling Alawites constitute less than 20 percent of the population in Syria and rule the Sunni majority with a heavy hand, the Syrian ruling elite has even more reason to fear that Syrians could view Egyptian unrest as an example. STRATFOR sources in Syria indicated that the Syrian government ramped up security measures after the Tunisian riots and that those measures reached unprecedented levels after the ongoing unrest in Egyptian cities began. To this end, the Syrian security apparatus is currently keeping a close eye on youth activities in the country, such as at Internet cafes.
Currently, nothing indicates that Egyptian-style unrest is simmering Syria, but given the structure of the political regime and economic conditions, Syria will remain a key country in the region to watch.
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