 | Stan van Houcke <stanvanhoucke@gmail.com> |
| The Guardian lies about Putin’s statement on Trump’s Greenland demand. |
| Eric Zuesse from Eric’s Substack <ericzuesse@substack.com> | 30 maart 2025 om 22:54 | |
Antwoorden op: Eric Zuesse from Eric’s Substack <reply+2ndw4a&as17w&&9520400ca1ada3235b319e0131bdf4c47ffc0bb699d6775d07d4770d719645b6@mg1.substack.com> Aan: stanvanhoucke@gmail.com | ||
The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection
A war with Iran would be 10 to 15 times worse than the Iraq War in terms of casualties and costs… And we would lose. We would undoubtedly lose…. Retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson
There has been much discussion about the relocation of B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia in anticipation of a potential conflict with Iran… However, the B-2 excels primarily against small, unsophisticated, and impoverished nations equipped with outdated air defense systems. …In short, the B-2 is a sophisticated tool for intimidating weaker adversaries but is largely ineffective against modern Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS). Mike Mihajlovic @MihajlovicMike
Recent reports and satellite imagery indicate a significant buildup of US military assets at Diego Garcia, a strategic base in the Indian Ocean. The Pentagon has deployed seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers (capable of carrying nuclear payloads) numerous C-17 transport planes, ten KC-135 refueling tankers, an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine, and two carrier groups to locations where they can be used in a preemptive attack on Iran. The unprecedented buildup coincides with recent threats by President Donald Trump regarding Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. On Friday, Trump delivered another ominous warning to Iran during a briefing at the White House. He said:
Iran is very high on my list of things to watch. … We will have to talk it out or very bad things are going to happen to Iran…. My big preference is that we work it out with Iran, but if we don’t work it out, bad, bad things are going to happen to Iran.
The increase in warnings along with the deployment of B-2 bombers has caused a stir among analysts, many of who now believe that Trump is planning to target Iran’s nuclear facilities with “low yield” nuclear bunker buster bombs that are designed to penetrate and destroy underground, fortified facilities. If that action were to take place, Iran would be forced to launch massive retaliatory attacks on US and Israeli bases, naval assets, critical infrastructure and oil facilities across the Middle East. And, if those attacks were able to inflict significant damage on US or Israeli targets, then we could see a rapid escalation to a nuclear war, a scenario that seems more likely now than ever before. This is an excerpt from an interview with former weapons inspector Scott Ritter:
…seven B-2 bombers have been deployed from Whitman Airforce base in the United States to Diego Garcia. This is an unprecedented deployment. And they are matched with 10 KC-31 Tankers; that’s what’s needed to launch an attack against a target like Iran. This is something that should wake people up because there is real potential for conflict….The fact is there are B-2 bombers, there are Ohio class submarines, there are nuclear weapons attached to each of these weapons systems; nuclear weapons that have been built for the sole purpose of attacking targets like these that exist in Iran. … I am simply stating the fact that the Trump administration has a nuclear posture attached to a nuclear employment plan that will use nuclear weapons in a conflict against Iran, and we can’t pretend that that doesn’t exist. Scott Ritter; minute 5:40
It’s worth noting, that the Trump administration is on the verge of launching a war on a country that poses no national security threat to the United States, nor does it threaten US interests in the region. Iran’s only crime is that it occupies a piece of real estate in a region where Israel is determined to be the dominant power. That means Iran’s military capability must be significantly diminished by Israel’s favorite pit-bull, the United States. To that end, wealthy Zionists filled Trump’s campaign coffers during the last presidential election knowing that Trump’s vast popularity would be useful in advancing the Israeli agenda. The primary goal of that agenda has always been the obliteration of Iran’s military capability so that Israel can emerge as the as the regional hegemon unopposed. Trump is merely playing the role for which he was chosen. Here’s more from Ritter:
Scott Ritter—When Trump was president last time (2016) he redid the Nuclear Posture Review and the Nuclear Employment Guidance. And the Nuclear Employment Guidance is the war plan. The war plan was rewritten so he could launch nuclear strikes on Iran. So we’re ready to launch strikes on Iran today, the plan was implemented… we have the weapons, we’ve identified the targets ….
Question—What was rewritten?
Scott Ritter—You need specific weapons-types…. We do now have a new nuclear “low yield” bunker busting bomb that will penetrate and destroy the facility with minimal fallout (We have similar nukes on Trident submarines in the region that can be used in a decapitation strike on Iran) We are ready to go to war against Iran. We have already made that decision; the plan exists.
Question—So what you’re telling me is that, if Iran develops a nuclear weapon…
Scott Ritter—We will strike, and they will be annihilated… They’ll never know what his them, and they’ll never recover from it.... The American plan will not kill tens of millions of Iranians, but it will kill tens of thousands of Iranians, destroy the nuclear infrastructure, and set Iran back forever. The alternative for Iran is to negotiate away their nuclear (program) Scott Ritter
This is why Ritter is so worried. He seriously believes that Trump is planning to preemptively attack Iran’s nuclear sites which would set the dominoes in motion triggering a nuclear war. To me, this seems like a reasonable concern, but, surprisingly, Ritter’s analysis has ignited a firestorm among a number of his supporters online who have (overnight) turned into some of his most vicious critics. Here’s a short clip from a post by Sony Thang@nxt888 that has been widely circulated on X:
Scott… Let me tell you plainly: If the U.S. uses nuclear weapons against Iran—even “tactical” ones—the spell breaks. Forever. The myth of Western restraint dies in the open. The lie of rules-based order evaporates in radioactive dust….
China won’t wait to be next. Russia will tighten its alliance with Tehran. The Global South will turn its back for good. And every nation not under Washington’s boot will know the truth: if you don’t arm yourself, you will be annihilated.
That’s not proliferation. That’s inevitability.
You say, “Only one nation walks away.”
No, Scott.
No one walks away from nuclear war. Not cleanly. Not economically. Not morally. But let’s entertain your scenario.
Iran is wiped out. Oil hits $500 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz is a graveyard. The global economy implodes—not just Europe and Asia, but the dollar itself, because trust dies when empire burns its last moral pretense.
And here’s the part your Pentagon fantasies never compute: It’s not just bombs that bring nations to their knees. It’s legitimacy. Once lost, never regained.
And the U.S.? Already staggering from endless wars—it won’t rise from the ashes of another charred country. It’ll sink into them.
You claim you “assess the world as it is”?
Then look again. The American empire is not ascending.
It’s cornered. It’s flailing. It’s threatening annihilation not out of strength, but fear. Fear that the world it dominated is slipping away. Fear that Iran refuses to kneel. And fear that history, which you once claimed would hold America accountable, is no longer on your side.
So, keep listing your bombers, your submarines, your low-yield fantasies. Because beneath all that steel and strategy lies a single truth:
You’ve already lost the moral war.
And when that goes? Everything else follows. Sony Thang
The overall thrust of these critiques is a tacit objection to any move by Iran to compromise (or negotiate) with the Trump administration. This is generally perceived as “caving in” to the evil empire. (which, in many respects, is true.)
It’s worth noting, that Iran is not currently in violation of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) nor has it been in the past. In fact, Iran has willingly complied with numerous additional protocols and confidence building measures (that were never imposed on any other country) all aimed at allaying fears that it was secretly developing nuclear weapons. But as Tulsi Gabbard confirmed recently, and former CIA Director William Burns before her; Iran does not have nukes, is not building nukes, and has not broken its agreements under the NPT. The whole matter is a mendacious confection concocted by powerful Zionists and their media collaborators who want to destroy Iran in order for Israel to become the dominant power in the Middle East.
It’s also worth noting the dishonest way this crisis has been presented to the American people. The public has been led to believe that Trump is trying to prevent nuclear proliferation when, in fact, the administration is demanding that Iran abandon its ballistic missile program as well.
On March 23, 2025, on Face the Nation, Trump advisor Mike Waltz stated bluntly that Trump’s demands include the dismantling of Iran’s “strategic missile program”. But Iran’s ballistic missiles do not violate any international law nor are they banned under any treaty obligation. Trump is simply ordering Iran to surrender the means by which it defends itself or face military action by the US. Is that a reasonable demand?
No, it is national suicide. And, once again, the origin of this insanity is Benjamin Netanyahu who has consistently urged the U.S. to take stronger action against Iran’s missile capabilities. (Israel’s agents in Congress introduced the MISSILES Act in July 2023 to codify U.S. sanctions on Iran’s missile and drone programs, citing Israel’s security. At the same time, Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign has included “missile-related entities”…”credited to Netanyahu’s input.”)
In short, Iran is being asked to willingly disarm itself so Israel can do to Iran what it is currently doing to Syria and Lebanon. Why would they do that?
They won’t. They will open back-channel communications with Trump’s envoys and continue to comply with their treaty obligations but eventually Trump will order air-strikes on nuclear targets in Iran signaling the beginning of the war. And that will pit America’s out-of-date weapons cache up-against Iran’s state-of-the-art ballistic missile systems that will—as Will Schryver opines—expose American weakness, not reinforce the widespread mythology of untouchable American strength.
The reasons for this are easy to understand. Following last year’s tit-for-tat missile attacks between Israel and Iran, a fantastical narrative emerged that Israeli air strikes on Iran were successful while Iranian missile attacks on Israel failed to do any significant damage. But nothing could be further from the truth. Israel’s air campaign was sharply rebuffed by Iran’s advanced multi-layered air defense systems while the vast majority of Iran’s long-range hypersonic ballistic missiles cut-through Israeli vaunted air defense systems striking targets without interference.
How do we draw these unusual conclusions?
By checking the documented accounts of what actually took place. For example, consider this early account of Israel’s October 26 attack by former intelligence officer Alastair Crooke:
Question—Did Israel cause any meaningful damage to Iran in its attack on October 26?
Alastair Crooke—No, but something significant did happen, because the attack was supposed to lead off with the destruction of the air defense systems…. what they call SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) The aircraft was supposed to destroy the air defenses in Iraq, Syria and Iran so the second and third waves would come in with conventional weapons to destroy the targets that had been selected for them. But the second and third wave could only enter Iranian airspace if it was safe for them to do that. (if the air defenses had been properly suppressed) Now what happened (although we don’t know precisely) is that those second and third waves never happened. We got into the first wave and the Israelis said “That’s it, we’re finished. It’s over. We won and it’s a great success.”
What seems to have happened is that the Israeli aircraft with their long-range missiles to destroy the air defense systems never got closer than 70 kms to Iran, too far for their missiles to lock on to the air defenses because they needed the signals to lock onto. …The key thing they said—and this is from Israeli sources—“We’ve discovered an unknown air defense system over Tehran province.” So what seems to have happened is that they (the Israeli aircraft) were being locked onto by another air defense system so they were frightened to go ahead and they scrapped the attack. They then simply released their long-range missiles (Most of these missiles are guided by GPS and the Russians are highly adept at jamming GPS.) But …this unexplained air defense system, was possibly a Russian air defense system that can attack stealth fighters like the F-35s. … If you have a missile that has a radar capacity that is able to identify a stealth fighter, then the whole idea of the attack on Iran seems to have collapsed….
All the conventional bombers carrying conventional weapons wouldn’t go into the area because it was too dangerous, it was not a secure area. The airspace was dominated by air defense that threatened the stealth fighters themselves.
This has huge geostrategic implications if this is what in fact happened…. You see, there was a three-phased plan; and when the plan was scuppered, they just announced the plan as if it had happened. “We’ve succeeded. We flew over Tehran; we suppressed their air defenses, we bombed targets and we destroyed their missile capacity.”
It’s just hype. It’s not true. Judging Freedom, Alastair Crooke, YouTube
Keep in mind, Crooke’s account is just one of many accounts that relay the same basic facts and the draw the same basic conclusions. And those conclusions, as we stated earlier, are linked to “Iran’s advanced multi-layered air defense system that can counter any potential Israeli attack on the homeland.”
In short, there is no evidence that either Israel or the United States have the ability to effectively penetrate Iran’s air defense system and destroy the targets they need to obliterate to win the war.
What’s more interesting is the fact that Israel has apparently kept this information from Trump and his advisors who are stumbling blindly into a disaster. I have seen nothing that would convince me that Hegseth, Waltz or Rubio have a clear understanding of what transpired in the clashes between Israel and Iran. They are operating on the theory that Israel is telling them the truth.
In contrast, Iran’s attack on Israel was a rousing success, which is to say, that their cutting-edge ballistic missiles completely eluded Israel’s air-defense systems hitting some of the most heavily defended targets in the world. This is from a post by the Armchair Warlord:
The Iranian strike on Nevatim and Tel Nof Airfields … in Israel on Tuesday completely validated my analysis from April. In April the Iranians demonstrated they could defeat Israel’s BMD system at will and strike precision targets – this time they did damage. Video of the engagement suggests that the vast majority of the Iranian salvo – probably more than 80% – penetrated and struck targets in Israel. …..
The Iranians can be expected to have damaged aircraft, infrastructure, SAM systems, and AD radars at both airfields, as well as hitting several other targets elsewhere in the country less intensively. The effectiveness of the strike can be seen by simply observing the Israeli reaction – rather than an immediate counterattack they have withdrawn for deliberations, with some talk of a deescalatory downward-step retaliation against the Houthis or Hezbollah. The reason for this is simple – the Iranians have now demonstrated the ability to overwhelm the Israeli AD system at will and precisely strike targets, and with their missile shield ineffective the Israeli leadership is coming to terms with the fact they run a small and isolated country with a limited amount of critical infrastructure
At this point the Ayatollah can push a button and turn the lights out in Israel, and no amount of American money can prevent that. Armchair Warlord@ArmchairW
And, although the MSM has tried to sugarcoat Iran’s October 1 attack, (and make it look like a ‘big nothingburger’) some of the mainstream publications have accurately recorded what took place on October 1. This is from an article at the Guardian titled: Escalation with Iran could be risky: Israel is more vulnerable than it seems:
Satellite and social media footage has shown missile after missile striking the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, and setting off at least some secondary explosions, indicating that despite the highly touted effectiveness of Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow air defences, Iran’s strikes were more effective than had been previously admitted.
Experts who analysed the footage noted at least 32 direct hits on the airbase. None appeared to have caused major damage, but some landed close to hangars that house Israel’s F-35 jets, among the country’s most prized military assets….
“The core fact remains that Iran has proven it can hit Israel hard if it so chose,” writes Decker Eveleth, an analyst with the research and analysis group CNA, who analysed the satellite images for a blogpost. “Airbases are hard targets, and the sort of target that likely won’t produce many casualties. Iran could choose a different target – say, a densely packed IDF ground forces base, or a target within a civilian area – and a missile strike there would produce a large number of [casualties].”….
In the attack, Vaez said, Iran had “used their most advanced weapons, and they have sufficient stockpile of being able to do that for months. That would be the world we’ll be living in unless somebody pulls the plug on this cycle of escalation. Escalation with Iran could be risky: Israel is more vulnerable than it seems, The Guardian
Think about that for a minute: Iranian ballistic missiles landed 32 direct hits on the Nevatim airbase, the most heavily defended airbase on the planet. The Iranians have shown that they can put their missiles on any target in any location in Israel and Israel has no way to stop them.
What does it all mean?
It means that Israel is luring the United States into a war that it cannot win and that will bring the American Century to a catastrophic end.
With Karim Khan's dismissal, the elimination of the war crimes court is near-complete Millions of people around the world will now fin...
