Het Neoliberale Geloof 89

'YIELD SIGNS
All signs point to U.S. consumers hunkering down in recession bunkers
HARRY KOZA
January 18, 2008
'I'm walking down Fifth Avenue the other day, and all the stores have big signs saying 50 to 70 per cent off everything, and the only people in there doing any actual buying are, like, from Canada or Europe."
"Yow! You mean even in Manhattan consumers are tapped out and have stopped spending? That sounds like - dare I say it - a recession is indeed upon us. How bad is it down there in the Big Apple, have you had to sell your Ferrari yet?"
"Dude, I live in Manhattan! Why would I need a car?"
"So I guess you still travel everywhere by limo and expense it, then? Never mind, stupid question. Still, I'm not surprised that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession."
"Yeah, yeah, Harry, you're like the freakin' yield curve, you've predicted 12 of the last 4 recessions. You love this doom and gloom stuff, don't you?"
"I'll admit to possessing a healthy pessimism when it comes to market manias, but I do occasionally get bullish about some things. Mind you, I have been predicting a recession since the credit crunch started happening, back in August."
"Yeah, yeah, and you were ranting about the housing bubble over a year ago. I've heard your spiel a million frigging times already: Consumer spending is 70 per cent of the U.S. economy, and most of that has been driven by consumers taking the equity out of their houses and spending it, and now that game is over because their houses are all heavily underwater and they've maxed out their 17 credit cards and have no savings, and even the poor momzers who didn't have subprime mortgages have no equity in their homes because their houses aren't worth what they owe on them either."
He stops for breath, so I jump back in.
"Well, that's the start of it, all right. Even people who own their houses mortgage-free are feeling a pinch. Plus, food and energy prices are rising. You saw the December U.S. CPI data on Wednesday, right? Discretionary spending was down half a per cent on the month, with a big slowdown on spending at restaurants. And headline CPI up 4.1 per cent year over year - that's the highest annualized rate since 1990. Plus which, consumer confidence is falling, and likely to get even worse as this mess goes on."'

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