maandag 12 juni 2006

De Dollar Hegemonie 11

De onafhankelijke Amerikaanse journalist Mike Whitney schrijft: 'The great dollar sell-off has begun in earnest, although to a large extent, it is being concealed from the public.

Wary currency traders have been expecting a dollar-slide for months but were nervous about the possibility of widespread panic. Everyone from Bill Gates to Paul Volcker has predicted that the current trade deficit of $800 billion (7% of GDP) would inevitably produce a weaker dollar, so it is only natural that China, Japan and other foreign lenders would begin to cut back on their purchases. The danger to the United States, however, remains extreme. If the transition doesn’t go smoothly, it could precipitate a run on the dollar and trigger economic pandemonium. No one wants to see the world’s economic powerhouse pirouetting through the ether in flames. By the same token, no one wants to be the last man holding onto stockpiles of scrip that are diminishing in value.

The delicacy of the situation explains the sudden appointment of Henry Paulson as Treasury Secretary. Paulson is a brainy insider who has the bone fides to manage a very tricky “retreat” from the dollar. America’s economic future will depend heavily on his ability to steer the ship of state through troubled waters.
As we said, there was no doubt that China, Japan and others would eventually reduce their dollar-holdings as America’s debt continued to mount. What is surprising though is that a sell-off did not occur earlier when Bush enshrined his reckless tax cuts and profligate spending as “permanent”. The administration’s fondness for living beyond its means has never been in doubt, now greenback will pay the price for Bush’s excessiveness.

Of course, Bush is not the main scoundrel in this morality play. The Federal Reserve has weakened the dollar enormously by engineering one monetary-coup after another. Greenspan’s “cheap money” policy has created massive equity bubbles that appear whenever interest rates are absurdly low. When the stock market crashed in the late 90s, millions of working class people lost their retirement and life savings overnight, while wealthy insiders walked away unscathed. Undaunted by the economic carnage he produced, Greenspan again lowered interest rates to a ridiculous 1% in 2001 which created a $9 trillion housing bubble, “the largest equity bubble of all time” (says “The Economist”). Now, as interest rates inch higher, the housing industry is lumbering towards the power-lines and certain death. The effects on the world economy will be catastrophic.' Lees verder:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article13493.htm

1 opmerking:

Anoniem zei

Oneindige schuld bestaat nou eenmaal niet.

Een parallel met de '20 jaren en de roerige jaren daarna is wellicht te trekken.

Thans wordt het effect echter uitgesteld door een herinflatie van de bubbel van 2000.

Het uiteindelijke effect kan weinig anders zijn dan wereldwijde economische problemen, we beleven thans slechts uitstel.

Overigens valt ook vanuit deze lijn een connectie te maken naar de oorlog in Irak en de dreigende oorlog met Iran. Bescherming van het petro-dollar systeem kan best eens een van de kernpunten zijn van deze militaire acties, naast strategische aanwezigheid en controle over olie.