As looms 2,000 KILLED just Israel side, as looms oil price will be USD 160-170
Author still the student with the thickest thesis defense ever in IR [international relation] Indonesia, more than 200 pages, arguing Israel - Palestine in Gaza Strip, years ago.
Gaza / Jerusalem / Tel Aviv / Jeddah 8.21pm [around 32 hours of war] - BREAKING NEWS live update click here
There is a world of difference in being exposed to a global pricing rise in oil vs an actual physical market shortage of oil. Phasing out and transitioning away from fossil fuels is a very tough challenge in a world that has built its industry and infrastructure on exactly that. Energy independence’ is a chimera. True energy security thus comes from using less oil, not just from importing less or producing more oil domestically. Reality of the 1973 Oil Embargo is it did not take long to reroute oil purchases around the embargo.
With potential 'whatever cost [to revanche, settle a score]' in Israeli side after suffered 1,000 casualties, as looms oil price will be USD 160-170
The Israel war is likely to add further pressure on a tight oil and gas market just as freight costs [don't forget Israel in near Suez Canal, Mediterranean Sea] also rise, as oil and gas traders prepare for the market to open after the sudden eruption of war in Israel. OPEC+ is 'very concerned' about oil and gas demand fears amid tension Israel - Palestine. The US military moves an aircraft carrier near Israel to show Washington's support, technically from the mediterranean sea until the Suez Canal is already ‘busiest than usual.’ Minutes ago, Israeli media already announced 700 Israelis died in the last 38 hours, but based on my calculation, Israeli deaths maybe [already] surpassed 1,000 or even 2,000 but not yet reported.
Palestine already liberated [38 hours and still counting, still conquered] an area of occupied Palestine bigger than Gaza, and until now, IDF or Israeli military still cannot push back the Palestinian to the border line again. If a gigantic participant of a rave party near Gaza [240 - 250 bodies] was just found 6 hours ago [32 hours of war], imagine a lot of casualties in an area which is currently still occupied by ‘parachute troopers or hang glider’ of Palestine.
Of course, the Israeli side still can’t count how many actual casualties, or still a lot of [number] ‘under reporting.’ READ CAREFULLY = ‘already liberated an area of occupied Palestine [Israel] bugger than Gaza.’ Gaza has a total area of 365 km2(141 sq mi)
![Israelis kill other Israelis. 750 Israeli ‘hostages’ may be killed by Israeli bombs in Gaza, may still alive [ps: current casualties in Israeli side may reaches 700]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1300,h_650,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F205052a7-51f9-460c-8011-58c05ba23782_448x523.png)
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However, oil prices may recover from the recent slump and not rise much faster as demand destruction takes over. Crude traders expect a massive price surge as there’s immediate threat to supply. The Israeli security cabinet made it official 4 hours ago that Israel declares war for the first time since the 1973 [Yom Kippur War], although technically clashes already started at 6.30am Saturday morning local time [11.30pm DC time - Friday].
Israelis abroad, especially in Greece, are called to return for reservist enlistment. Israel army drafts university students and lecturers into the military reserves. Israel’s Ben Gvir orders the issuance of firearms licensing to any citizen without a criminal record within a week after a phone interview at a government bureau. Contrary, huge congestion on the roads towards the airport and inside the airport. 3 Decisions related to the reservist lookalike Israel really losing [killed] too many soldiers in the last 38 hours, UNPREPARED to facing Palestine, worse than Yom Kippur War and Six Day War. If the last 38 hours are really worse than 50 years ago, we try to assume oil and gas prices may be worse than 50 years ago, maybe WILL ROCKETED [worst scenario] USD160-170.
![Today October 1st Gasoline IDR 14k [USD1] is too small a hike. The fact MOPS Singapore August [USD79] too low if compare new oil price [USD93-100]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1300,h_650,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcfdd246b-ab8f-4be0-b41a-6c968185c5bd_657x534.png)
Where does US store their oil and how much can be withdrawn, it’s stored in 4 different sites. With drawdown rates
- Bryan Mound: 1.5 million b/d
- Big Hill: 1.1m b/d
- West Hackberry: 1.3m b/d
- Bayou Choctaw: 0.5m b/d
Total: 4.4 million barrel/day
In fact, Canada export more Crude Oil to the US than rest of all worlds. Crude Oil exports put together to the US. Crude quality matters but in time of peace and NOT in times of war or emergency If in emergency, Govts will throw the kitchen sink as well. Example, Indian refiners using Russian Urals. From near Zero % to 45% of its import.
note = Author still the student with the thickest thesis defense ever in IR [international relation] Indonesia, more than 200 pages, arguing Israel - Palestine in Gaza Strip, years ago.
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