De-Dollarization

Here’s which currency to hold to hedge against the US dollar’s decline.        Having trouble viewing this email? Click here

Case Study #2:  The case of the US dollar… a Ponzi scheme?  There’s a politician in Russia trying to ban the use of US dollar for Russians and Russian companies, calling it a Ponzi scheme. 20 years ago this would have been considered blasphemous. 10 years ago it would have been laughed at. Today, it’s taken seriously. And with good reason. If you dive deep into the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, you can see for yourself. Just like any other bank, the Federal Reserve has assets and liabilities. The difference between the two of these is the bank’s capital. And in general, the higher the capital, the stronger the bank. One way to measure a bank’s capital is as a percentage of its assets – higher is always better. You may recall, for example, that when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in 2008, the firm’s capital (or equity) was about 3% of its total assets. In early 2013, the Fed was at 1.93%. By the end of 2014, its capital had fallen to 1.25%. Proportionally, this is 35% lower! So the Fed’s balance sheet is clearly deteriorating quite rapidly. This is critical to understand… because the dollar is ultimately the Fed’s currency. The Fed has monopolistic control over the US money supply. So as the Fed deteriorates, so does the dollar. Take a look at that dollar in your pocket. It says ‘Federal Reserve Note’. ‘Note’ is just an accounting term for a liability. So by printing money, the Fed is really just creating more liabilities and eroding its balance sheet. As they do this, the Fed’s capital shrinks. This puts the Fed… and the dollar… in precarious financial condition. Given that the Fed’s assets are so closely tied to the finances of the US government, the outlook should concern independent, thinking people. If the Fed goes bust, the value of Federal Reserve notes (i.e. ‘dollars’) is going to plummet… along with the paper wealth of anyone holding them. Now, when the dollar reaches its intrinsic value is anyone’s guess. Maybe it happens next month. Or in the next decade. No one knows… And that’s why it’s important to find a solution that is suitable in either scenario. Here’s one option to consider: Own the Hong Kong dollar Fundamentally, the Hong Kong dollar is MUCH stronger than the US dollar. Hong Kong’s central bank is nearly 20-TIMES more capitalized than the Federal Reserve, and the Hong Kong government has a minimal debt level. But more importantly, the Hong Kong dollar is pegged (for now) to the US dollar. It trades at 7.80 Hong Kong dollars per US dollar in a very narrow band. This essentially eliminates currency risk. You can freely convert between Hong Kong and US dollars without taking a bath. And if the US dollar surges temporarily with respect to other currencies, the Hong Kong dollar will also do well. But should the US dollar collapse, then the Hong Kong Monetary Authority would simply de-peg from the US dollar… or at least revalue it. In other words, by holding Hong Kong dollars, you can capture the benefits of US dollar exposure while protecting against downside risks. There may be options at your local bank for holding Hong Kong dollars. But the best option is to go straight to the source– open a bank account in Asia, preferably in Hong Kong or Singapore where you can own Hong Kong dollars directly. The banks are much better capitalized in this part of the world, and you would substantially reduce your counterparty risk by holding the funds directly... To your freedom,   Simon Black Founder, SovereignMan.com China has become main banker in Latin America By: TLB Published March 18, 2015, in Commentary, World Affairs by Ariel Noyola Rodríguez Over the course of 2014, Chinese banks granted a total of 22.1 billion dollars in loans to Latin America, in accordance with data published by Inter-American Dialogue [1]. In light of the downturn of the world economy and the increase of geopolitical tensions, China has been obligated to strengthen their bonds with countries that possess abundant natural resources (oil, gas, metals, minerals, water, biodiversity etc.) Although ICBC and Bank of China also participated in the granting of loans, almost all loans were granted by China Development Bank and China Ex-Im Bank. Despite the fact that loans of less than 50 million dollars were not taken into account, the reported number is an increase of more than 70% in comparison to the loans granted in 2013, which were 12.9 billion dollars in total. From 2005 (when the data base Inter-American Dialogue started registering) to 2014, China granted loans to Latin American countries of 119 billion dollars in total [2]. The Chinese grants are higher than the total amount of loans granted by the Ex-Im Bank from the United States, the Inter-American Bank of Development (IABD) and the World Bank. This situation contributes to Washington’s weakening financial hegemony in the region [3]. From the massive grant of loans it also becomes apparent that China has developed intensive cooperation with Latin American countries. During the most recent summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC, which consists of 33 countries), Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, announced that trades between both parties are expected to reach 500 billion dollars annually by 2020. On top of that, investments will reach 250 billion dollars [4]. Furthermore, the building of strategic partnerships with some South American countries has to be highlighted. The 90% of all loans granted last year were issued to the following countries: Brazil consolidated itself as the main recipient with a loan of 8.6 billion dollars, followed by Argentina, which was granted 7 billion, Venezuela with 5.7 billion and lastly Ecuador, with 820 million dollars. After the crisis in American IT companies, the central banks of industrialised countries stimulated the expansion of granting loans on a global scale. The surge in commodity prices that has been going on since 2002 converted Latin America into one of the favourite regions of investors looking for cost-effective places. More than six years after the outbreak of the financial crisis of 2008 and facing extreme volatility of financial markets as a consequence of increased system vulnerability, the Chinese ended up being the favourite bankers of emergent countries as they offer loans with fewer conditions and at lower interest rates compared to American and European banks. In accordance with estimations made by Fred Hochberg, president of the Ex-Im Bank from the United States, the Chinese state banks have invested approximately 650 billion dollars all over the world during the last two years. However, the coin also has another, more perverse, side. Everything seems to indicate that the Chinese loans in exchange for future supply of commodities are orientated at investment projects related to extraction (agriculture, mining, energy etc.) rather than the support of technological development, with which the Chinese risk deepening the exporting primary pattern of Latin American economies and multiplying the threats of dispossession at cost of the indigenous community. On the other hand, Kevin Gallagher, the academic responsible for the data base published by Inter-American Dialogue, warns for the increasing risks for Latin American countries concerning paying off debts to the Asian juggernaut in time in an interview with Deutsche Welle [5]. In the light of the downfall of currencies in the region compared to the American dollar, as well as the persistent deflation (price plunge) in the market of commodities, importation has increased and, as a consequence, caused a decrease in the surplus balance (current account) of the economies most orientated at exportation. The cost-effectiveness of investment projects related to extraction will most likely decrease significantly during the coming months. It is the case that if the downturn of emerging countries grabs hold of its economies, the economic South-South cooperation between China and Latin America will probably fail. In the middle of the crisis, there is a possible danger that Chinese banks may impose the same imperial coercion mechanisms on Latin America as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) used to do, in various forms. Ariel Noyola Rodríguez Translation Thirza Toes         [1] «China-Latin America Finance Database», Kevin P. Gallagher y Margaret Myers, Inter-American Dialogue. [2] «China keeps credit flowing to Latin America’s fragile economies», Kevin P. Gallagher y Margaret Myers, The Financial Times, February 27, 2015. [3] «China Kicks World Bank To The Curb In Latin America», Kenneth Rapoza, Forbes, February 26, 2015. [4] «Despite US-Cuba Detente, China Forges Ahead in Latin America», Shannon Thiezzi, The Diplomat, January 9, 2015. [5] «Chinese loans helping Latin America amid oil price slump», Deutsche Welle, February 27, 2015. TLB recommends you visit Voltaire Network for more great articles and pertinent information. See original article here http://www.thefallingdarkness.com/tag/de-dollarization/