Trump needs a Belichick game plan for Iran
Contemplating the incoherence of President Trump’s Iran policy asthe explosion of mines on oil tankers approaching the Strait of Hormuz and the downing of a US drone nearly provoked American retaliation against military targets in Iran, I was reminded of the sign Billy Wilder, director of “Some Like It Hot,’’ kept in his study. “How would Lubitsch do it?’’ the sign said, in tribute to Wilder’s mentor, Ernst Lubitsch, the creator of “Ninotchka,’’ and “To Be Or Not To Be.’’ Wilder’s reminder to himself evoked a wish that someone would hang a sign in the Oval Office that instructed Trump to ask himself, before taking any important decision, “What Would Belichick Do?’
Because the first principle of New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s game plan is to delve deep into the proclivities of an opponent — to know before the whistle blows what that rival tends to do in a given situation.
Trump, who appears to know about Iran only what he has gleaned from Fox News, has taken America out of an international nuclear pact that the clerical regime was observing scrupulously and has imposed crushing sanctions that affect Iran’s oil sales, metals industry exports, and financial transactions. If Trump had any understanding of the adversary his belligerent national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have chosen for him, he would know that his actions strengthen the clerical regime’s most rabid elements while inflicting great harm on a populace that tends to be favorably inclined toward America.
There is zero chance the supreme leader will debase himself by entering into a direct negotiation with Trump. And before any US-Iran dialogue could produce an outcome both parties might accept, Trump will need to back away from the extreme demands Bolton and Pompeo have sought to impose.
It is an open secret that Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, have come under the influence of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, his Emirati counterpart, Mohammed bin Zayed, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. Those regional leaders decried the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated under Barack Obama not so much because its sunset clauses might eventually allow Iran to resume enriching uranium to the level needed for a nuclear weapon, but rather because it did nothing to curtail Iran’s spreading influence in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
The regional antagonists of the Iranian regime have a point when they decry Tehran’s use of Shiite foot soldiers from several countries to fight in Syria under Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders. The ruling mafia of Syria’s hereditary president, Bashar Assad, has committed horrific crimes against humanity. And the bosses in Tehran are accomplices to those crimes.
Nevertheless, Obama had the right idea when he sought to resolve the nuclear issue as a first step toward a peaceful resolution of Iran’s conflicts with its neighbors and with Washington. What Trump apparently does not know is that, according to the CIA, Iran ceased its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Iranian generals, fearful that Saddam Hussein’s forces, with their chemical warfare agents and perhaps other weapons of mass destruction, might overcome Iran’s mostly unprofessional army, persuaded Ayatollah Khomeini to lift his prohibition against nuclear weapons as “haram’’ (against Islam).
After Saddam’s demise in 2003, Khomeini’s successor, Ayatollah Khamenei, once again defined all weapons of mass destruction as haram. There were two reasons for this course change. First, Saddam was gone and Iraq would be ruled by a fellow Shiite government, and, second, the Americans had just invaded a neighboring country on the false assertion that it might have — or would soon acquire — nuclear weapons.
Hence Iranian negotiators were hardly making a painful concession when they struck a deal with the Obama administration to limit drastically their production of enriched uranium and to severely reduce the number of their spinning centrifuges. They wanted an end to sanctions for the sake of economic progress — and to give themselves more leeway to enhance their influence in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
If Trump wants to limit Iran’s interventions in other countries, he should bring America back into the nuclear accord and then pursue negotiated agreements to end the gruesome wars in Syria and Yemen. A savvy US president would enroll the region’s major players — including Russia, Turkey, and Iran’s friends in Iraq and Qatar — in negotiations that aim to balance the interests of Iran and its neighbors. If there were a Belichick of geopolitics, he would have studied in great detail the strengths and weaknesses of the regime in Tehran; then he would contain it, take away its most dangerous weapons, and wait patiently for the clock to run out on it.
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