Voor de rijken is de recessie voorbij, maar voor alle anderen niet. Jobless growth, dat wordt het nieuwe toverwoord.
Updated: 2009-10-13 10:36
WASHINGTON: The worst US recession since the Great Depression has ended,
but weak household spending as the labor market struggles to create jobs
will slow the pace of the economy's recovery, according to a survey
released on Monday.
US recession over; unemployment at 10%
Job seekers wait in a line for a turn to speak with a recruiter at a job
fair in San Francisco, California September 15, 2009. [Agencies] US
recession over; unemployment at 10%
The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National
Association for Business Economics, also known as the NABE, found that 80
percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after
four straight quarters of declines.
"The great recession is over," NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser said.
"The vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has
ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than
those typically experienced following steep declines."
Recessions in the United States are dated by the National Bureau of
Economic Research. The private-sector group, which does not define a
recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real gross domestic
product, often takes months to make determinations.
The recession that started in December 2007 is the longest and deepest
since the 1930s. It was triggered by the US housing market's collapse and
the ensuing global credit crisis.
While the economy is believed to have rebounded in the third quarter,
analysts believe that ordinary Americans will probably not see much
difference as unemployment will remain high well into 2010, restraining
consumption.
"We don't necessarily expect the US economy to fall into a double-dip
recession. This time round, consumers will be reluctant to join the party,"
said Paul Ashworth, senior US economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.
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