The Empire 63

Mike Whitney schrijft:

'America’s moment in the Middle East is about to end.”

There are no “accidents” in Middle East politics. This week’s assassination of Lebanese Industry Minister, Pierre Gemayel can only be understood in the context of the ongoing struggle between the competing political forces in the region. Presently, the United States is the big loser in this regard due to its failed campaign in Iraq. The war has severely damaged the perception of US military invincibility and triggered a stunning rejection of Bush’s policies in the in the midterm elections. Now, the political-paradigm in America has shifted and a phased withdrawal of American troops could begin in a matter of months. Needless to say, this is not the outcome that the hawks in Washington or Tel Aviv had in mind. Could the assassination of Gemayel be an attempt to forestall the impending withdrawal of American forces? Yes. America’s effort in Iraq has failed miserably. It has created a security vacuum that is now being filled by armed-militias and resistance movements. The Middle East hasn’t been this volatile since 1948. It has descended into a semi-permanent state of flux in which all the main players are battling for a greater share of regional power. The assassination of Gemayel is just another chapter in this regrettable power-struggle. It puts Lebanon squarely in the gun-sights of regional rivals and increases the probability of another civil war. On one level, it appears as though Israel is the only country which benefits from a destabilized Lebanon. In fact, the assassination could be seen as an extension of the 34 Day War which killed 1300 Lebanese-nationals and destroyed much of the country’s infrastructure. From Tel Aviv’s perspective, a chaotic Lebanon weakens “Iran’s western flank”, Hezbollah, and strengthens Israel’s goal of reshaping the region to meet its long-term ambitions. (“Iran’s western flank” is a euphemism from an Israeli think tank) Most of the political pundits in the Arab media seem to believe that Israel was behind Gemayel’s murder. Here is a small sampling of some of their quotes which appeared in the BBC. ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6175778.stm )'

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