vrijdag 24 februari 2023

The Buildup To War In Ukraine

 February 24, 2023

The Buildup To War In Ukraine - Closure

This is the concluding thread of the small Moon of Alabama series on the buildup to war in Ukraine.

Here is a list of the the posts belonging to it.

I decided to add a copy of the piece I wrote and posted for Moon of Alabama on Thursday February 24, 2022, a few hours after the war had begun. It looked at the likely outcome of the war. I am somewhat astonished and relieved that today, one year later, I see no reasons to correct my previous outlook.

Repost:

Disarming Ukraine - Thursday, February 24, 2022

The military of Russia has launched an operation to disarm, and possibly regime change, the Ukraine.

I do understand why Russia is doing this - it is either attack now or defend itself later with way more casualties and the danger of total defeat.

I had hoped though that it would find other methods to protect Russia from further NATO aggression.

In 2014 the U.S. instigated regime change in Kiev and has since controlled the Ukrainian government. It has build up the Ukraine as a base to strangle Russia economically and militarily.

During the last two centuries Russia had to defend itself, with horrific casualties, against two huge invasions from the west. It is understandable that it does not want to repeat that experience. 

It is difficult to discern what the planed end state of this operation is. Where is this going to stop?

Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.


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This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection.

Excursion:

The yellow part of that map marked 'Ukraine in 1654' was actually the land of the Eastern Orthodox Zaporozhian Cossacks. Under threat from the Catholic Lithuanian-Polish Commonwealth, which at the time held the green parts under serfdom, the Cossacks negotiated the Pereiaslav Agreement (1654) with Russia and pledged allegiance to the Tsar. They area thus became an autonomous part of Russia.

End Excursion

The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.

Thanks to Stalin's additions to the Ukraine three countries, Poland, Hungary and Romania, have claims to certain areas in the Ukraine's western regions. If they want to snatch those up again it is now probably the best time to do so. Despite being part of NATO, which likely would not support such moves, those three will have domestic policy difficulties to withstand the urge.

I hope for a sharp but short fight which destroys the Ukraine's military capabilities but causes as little casualties and other damages as possible.

It is sad that NATO countries, including mine, did not have the courage to make the necessary concessions to prevent this from happening.

Update:

Putin's speech last night (English version) explains why this is happening.

End of the repost.

Posted by b on February 24, 2023 at 16:54 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/02/the-buildup-to-war-in-ukraine-closure.html

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