zondag 21 oktober 2018

Midterm Elections Could Hit a 50-Year High, if 50 percent of the Voters Turnout

By NATASHA BACH
October 18, 2018
November could see the highest voter turnout in 50 years, based on a new prediction this week.
Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who studies voter turnout, told NPR that turnout this year could be at a rate “that most people have never experienced in their lives for a midterm election.”
McDonald’s prediction is based on four indicators: record special election turnout, high primary turnout, a high degree of self-reported interest in the election, and high levels of early voting. Based on these, McDonald predicts that as many as 45-50% of eligible voters will do so. In 2014 just 36.7% voted, the lowest since 1942. Such high levels of voter turnout have not been seen since 1970 when 47% of the eligible population voted, or in 1966 when a record 49% voted in a midterm.
A number of recent polls would appear to corroborate McDonald’s prediction. A poll sponsored by a trio of SurveyMonkey, TheSkimm, and Vanity Fair’s The Hive from early October found that 62% of Americans believe that the 2018 midterm elections are more important than other midterms in their lifetime. Of those polled, two-thirds said they were “absolutely certain to vote” in the upcoming election.
Even young people, who have historically turned out in lower numbers than other voting groups, appear more driven to vote in November. A late August poll by NBC News and GenForward shows that 55% of millennials plan to vote. Should they actually turn up to the polls at that rate, it would mark a significant increase from midterms of years past: in 2014, voters under 30 comprised just 13% of the midterm electorate, and 12% in 2010.
With Republican control of both the House and Senate on the line and a Trump presidency driving greater interest in politics more broadly, voters from both sides of the aisle see a lot at stake. Whether they actually show up on Election Day remains to be seen.

Midterms: Young Americans not 

enthusiastic about voting, poll finds
Cat Hofacker  USA TODAY
Published 2:53 PM EDT Oct 12, 2018

Early voting on Oct. 8, 2018, in Des Moines, Iowa.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
Only one in three young Americans in the U.S. are certain they’re going to vote in the November midterm elections, according to a new survey by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic.

The survey, out Thursday, looked at attitudes about civic engagement among Americans from different age groups. Participants were a mixture of registered voters and nonvoters. 

National Voter Turnout in Federal Elections: 1960-2014

Year
                Population              Voter        Turnout  
2014 245,712,915 NA 81,687,059 36.3%
2012 240,926,957 NA 130,234,600 53.6%
2010 235,809,266 NA 90,682,968 37.8%
2008 231,229,580 NA 132,618,580* 56.8
2006 220,600,000 135,889,600 80,588,000 37.1
2004 221,256,931 174,800,000 122,294,978 55.3
2002 215,473,000 150,990,598 79,830,119 37.0
2000 205,815,000 156,421,311 105,586,274 51.3
1998 200,929,000 141,850,558 73,117,022 36.4
1996 196,511,000 146,211,960 96,456,345 49.1
1994 193,650,000 130,292,822 75,105,860 38.8
1992 189,529,000 133,821,178 104,405,155 55.1
1990 185,812,000 121,105,630 67,859,189 36.5
1988 182,778,000 126,379,628 91,594,693 50.1
1986 178,566,000 118,399,984 64,991,128 36.4
1984 174,466,000 124,150,614 92,652,680 53.1
1982 169,938,000 110,671,225 67,615,576 39.8
1980 164,597,000 113,043,734 86,515,221 52.6
1978 158,373,000 103,291,265 58,917,938 37.2
1976 152,309,190 105,037,986 81,555,789 53.6
1974 146,336,000 96,199,0201 55,943,834 38.2
1972 140,776,000 97,328,541 77,718,554 55.2
1970 124,498,000 82,496,7472 58,014,338 46.6
1968 120,328,186 81,658,180 73,211,875 60.8
1966 116,132,000 76,288,2833 56,188,046 48.4
1964 114,090,000 73,715,818 70,644,592 61.9
1962 112,423,000 65,393,7514 53,141,227 47.3
1960 109,159,000 64,833,0965 68,838,204 63.1

https://www.infoplease.com/history-and-government/us-elections/national-voter-turnout-federal-elections-1960-2014

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