SATURDAY, JANUARY 25, 2025
Heat flux forecast to enter Arctic early February 2025
A heat flux is forecast to enter the Arctic early February 2025 that could raise temperatures to levels more than 30°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the above forecast for February 2, 2025 18Z, run January 27, 2027 06Z by Climate Reanalyzer.
The image on the right shows an updated forecast (run January 27, 2025 12Z), which sees a large area over the North Pole reaching an anomaly of 30°C on February 2, 2025 18Z.
The mechanisms leading to this situation have been described in earlier posts, most recently in this post, which adds that as temperatures rise, a huge amount of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and at its surface, and it is moving toward the Arctic due to prevailing wind and ocean currents.
The mechanisms leading to this situation have been described in earlier posts, most recently in this post, which adds that as temperatures rise, a huge amount of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and at its surface, and it is moving toward the Arctic due to prevailing wind and ocean currents.
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[ Jet Stream changes, click on images to enlarge ] |
As a result, the movement of heat toward the Arctic can at times be accelerated abruptly by strong longitudinal wind, accompanied by sudden acceleration of the Gulf Stream and its extension northward, as also illustrated by the image on the right with a forecast for February 3, 2025 06Z, of wind speed at 250 hPa (Jet Stream).
The temperature is forecast to reach 0.2°C (32.4 F) at the North Pole (green circle) on February 2, 2025 14:00 UTC, as illustrated by the image below, which displays both temperature and wind at 1000 hPa.
The image below shows a temperature of 1.0°C (33.7°F) forecast to hit the North Pole (green circle) on February 2, 2025 14:00 UTC at 1000 hPa.
As Arctic sea ice loses volume, this diminishes its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that less incoming ocean heat can be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, resulting in higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean.
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[ from earlier post ] |
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[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ] |
These are many feedbacks that come with rising the temperatures, and they can contribute strongly to the further acceleration of the temperature rise. One example is more water vapor ending up in the atmosphere, as illustrated by the image below.
While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.29°C on January 26, 2025, the highest temperature on record for the time of year, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to the data, despite La Niña. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?
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[ from earlier post ] |
Climate Emergency Declaration
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
Links
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
• Why downplay the need for action?
• Extinction
• pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
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