De Dollar Hegemonie 12

De Asia Times bericht:

'Dollar poised for a dip.

Making short-term predictions about the US dollar is notoriously difficult. So why do we say the dollar may fall after Tuesday's mid-term elections in the United States? Once we know what the future composition of Congress will be, the markets can shift focus from the excitement of the moment to what may lie ahead. We believe we have just seen the beginning of a more pronounced slowdown that will likely push us into recession. The reason we are more negative than many economists is that high levels of consumer debt make the economy much more interest-rate-sensitive than in past economic cycles. An area where this is particularly apparent is in the housing market, as consumers in the US, a so-called ownership society, have massive levels of debt accumulated in their homes. Given that only short-term interest rates have risen, only the most speculative homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages should have been affected. But in a world where the speculators have driven up prices, the speculators are also dragging the entire market down with them as the housing bubble deflates. If and when long-term rates reflect that we may be heading into an inflationary or stagflationary environment, the fallout for the housing market could be severe, as higher long-term rates squeeze masses of homeowners who need to refinance their mortgages in the months and years ahead. For now, market commentators try to grab on to every bit of good news released. The "best" news seems to come from corporations that are involved in the option-backdating scandals: these companies do not report their balance sheets while they investigate their wrongdoings. Wall Street loves them, as revenue is the only reliable number released - and US executives have become experts at generating top-line growth.'

Lees verder: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HK08Dj01.html