As US troops continue to try to block Russian troops from using certain roads in northeastern Syria, leading to lengthy standoffs between the soldiers (and long traffic jams for Syrian civilians), the Syrian army continues its advance into al-Qaeda-held Idlib province in the northwest.
This has not pleased the jihadi godfather, Recep Erdogan of Turkey, who has ordered his military to pour in more reinforcements into Idlib to try and get in the way of the advancing Syrian army, particularly around the strategically extremely important town of Saraqib on the juncture of M4 and M5 national highways.
This has not worked particularly well but has instead led to further humiliation for Erdogan as 7 Turkish troops were killed in a Syrian artillery barrage at Saraqib outskirts. Apparently the Syrians were under the impression they were firing on al-Qaeda rebels and not their Turkish human shields.
To satisfy Turkish honor Ankara then took to claiming it had carried out dozens of retaliatory attacks, killing 76 Syrian troops (as if they could know the number). But at least as far as the claimed aerial part of the retaliation is concerned the Russian military says no such Turkish attacks on Syrians ever took place.(Particularly since the November 2015 Turkish ambush and shootdown of the Russian Su-22 fighter-bomber the Russian military would not tolerate Turkish airforce in western Syrian airspace in the first place).
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Still, Erdogan was not done and is now claiming that in a recent phone call with Putin he presented the Russian president with an ultimatum.
According to Erdogan, he has told the Russian leader he has until month-end to get the Syrian army to withdraw from sovereign Syrian territory it has retaken in the last two Idlib offensives, and allow its reoccupation by al-Qaeda. Or if Putin is unable or unwilling to accomplish this, then Erdogan will send in the Turkish army and air force, who will.
It remains to be seen if this is merely Erdogan's usual empty rhetoric for domestic consumption, a momentary rage, or something more serious. However, at this point, not even Mohammed could get the Syrian troops to voluntarily withdraw from territory they had fought and died for, especially as after years of war they can smell that final victory is for the first time within arm's reach.
And if Erdogan should indeed order his military to cross the border to push back the Syrian troops (as opposed to merely ineffectually trying to get in their way as until now) then the Russian military will be exerting heavy pressure on the Kremlin to be allowed to answer.
The fate of the Turkish military outposts encircled by the Syrian army advance (four so far, will be even more by month-end) and of the men manning them would also become highly uncertain.
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